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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2004 NHL Preliminary round - Series 913.
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche

Schedule and 2004 Results
Regular Season Records: Colorado 40-22-13-7=100pts, Dallas 41-26-13-2=97pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 7 Apr: Dallas loses at Colorado, 3-goals-1
Game 2 on Friday, 9 Apr: Dallas loses at Colorado, 5-goals-2
Game 3 on Monday, 12 Apr: Colorado loses at Dallas, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 14 Apr: Colorado wins at Dallas, 3-goals-2 (2OT)
Game 5 on Saturday, 17 Apr: Dallas loses at Colorado, 5-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Colorado Avalanche hosted and defeated the Dallas Stars 5-goals-1 in best-of-7 series 913 Game 5, thus eliminating the Stars 4-games-1 from the 2004 NHL playoffs. Colorado thus improves its overall best-of-7 playoff series record to 17-6, and its Preliminary-round series record to 7-2. That of the Dallas Stars falls to a 12-8 overall NHL series record and a 6-3 Preliminary-round playoff series record. The series 913 win order, WWLWW, makes series 913 the tenth NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 playoff series, the 32nd best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and the 76th best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to follow this win order.

After Game 4: With a goal on Dallas ice 5:18 into the second overtime period, the Colorado Avalanche visited and defeated the Dallas Stars 3-goals-2 to take a 3-games-1 lead in best-of-7 series 913. In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2003, visiting teams 5:17 into the second overtime had a game record of 41-22 (.651): A trip deep into overtime proves costly yet again for an NHL home team. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Colorado Avalanche have an overall series record of 7-2 and a Preliminary-round series record of 2-2; when trailing 3-games-1, the Dallas Stars have an overall series record of 0-5 and a Preliminary-round series record of 0-1.

After Game 3: With best-of-7 playoff series 913 in Texas for Games 3-4, the Dallas Stars surmounted a second-period three-goals-one deficit and scored at the 2:11 mark of the first overtime to defeat the Colorado Avalanche on home ice, 4-goals-3, in series 913 Game 3. The Avalanche lead in series 913 is thus reduced to 2-games-1. When ahead in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Colorado Avalanche have an overall series record of 10-3, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-2, and an overall Game 4 record of 8-5; on the flip side, when the Dallas Stars trail a best-of-7 series 2-games-1, they have an overall series record of 2-5, a Preliminary-round series mark of 1-1, and an overall Game 4 record of 3-4.

After Game 2: In Denver, the Colorado Avalanche at home defeated the Dallas Stars 5-goals-2 to send series 913 to Dallas with a 2-games-nil Avalanche lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a 10-0 overall series record and a 5-0 Preliminary-round series record. When trailing 2-games-nil, the Dallas Stars have an 0-4 overall series record and an 0-1 Preliminary-round series record. (A Colorado series win would thus preserve perfection for both teams.) The last NHL team to open a best-of-7 playoff series with two losses but win the series was the Tampa Bay Lightning, in series 875 (in the 2003 NHL Preliminary round) vs. the Washington Capitals.

After Game 1: The Colorado Avalanche defeated the Dallas Stars 3-goals-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 playoff series 913. When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a 12-3 series record (with an active four-series winning streak) and a perfect 6-0 Preliminary-round series record. When trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a 4-6 series record and a 1-1 Preliminary-round series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2003-04 regular season, Colorado finished three points ahead of Dallas. From 1939 through 2003, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season points, they have gone on to post a 9-10 best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 913 is the 20th best-of-7 playoff series for Dallas and the 23rd for Colorado. In best-of-7 playoff series, Dallas has a 12-7 series record, a 6-2 Prelim-round series record, and a 9-10 Game 1 record, while Colorado has a 16-6 record, a 6-2 Prelim-round record, and a 15-7 Game 1 record. Series 913 is the third best-of-7 meeting between Dallas and Colorado; Dallas won the previous two best-of-7 playoff series (786; 811) between the two teams.