WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2004 NHL Preliminary round - Series 912.
Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks

Schedule and 2004 Results
Regular Season Records: Vancouver 43-24-10-5=101pts, Calgary 42-30-7-3=94pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 7 Apr: Calgary loses at Vancouver, 5-goals-3
Game 2 on Friday, 9 Apr: Calgary wins at Vancouver, 2-goals-1
Game 3 on Sunday, 11 Apr: Vancouver wins at Calgary, 2-goals-1
Game 4 on Tuesday, 13 Apr: Vancouver loses at Calgary, 4-goals-nil
Game 5 on Thursday, 15 Apr: Calgary wins at Vancouver, 2-goals-1
Game 6 on Saturday, 17 Apr: Vancouver wins at Calgary, 5-goals-4 (3OT)
Game 7 on Monday, 19 Apr: Calgary wins at Vancouver, 3-goals-2 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: Despite allowing the host Vancouver Canucks to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 912 Game 7 with only 5.7 seconds remaining in regulation, the Calgary Flames tallied at 1:25 into the first overtime period to defeat the Canucks 3-goals-2 and oust them 4-games-3. In winning their first best-of-7 NHL playoff series since their 1989 NHL Stanley Cup victory, the Calgary Flames improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 9-12 overall (3-7 in Preliminary-round series). The best-of-7 NHL playoff series record of the Vancouver Canucks falls to 9-13 overall (5-6 in Preliminary-round series). The win order for the victorious team in series 912 was LWLWWLW: Series 912 thus becomes the third NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 playoff series, the seventh NHL best-of-7 playoff series (all rounds), and the 16th MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series (all rounds) to follow this win order.

After Game 6: Best-of-7 series 912 Game 6 in Calgary saw the Vancouver Canucks take a 4-goals-nil lead, the Calgary Flames forge a 4-goals-all tie, and the Vancouver Canucks score 2:28 into the third overtime period to win the game 5-goals-4 and tie the series 3-games-all. Prior to this game, no road team in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game had ever taken a four-goal lead and subsequently lost the game; this perfect record among road teams remains intact. From 1939 through 2003, road teams in NHL best-of-7 play at 2:27 into the third overtime had a 19-7 (.731) game record, so despite the heroic Calgary comeback and any resulting momentum, multiple overtime periods remain a harsh realm on home ice. Series 913 Game 6 bears a strong resemblance to series 353 Game 4 (in the 1979 NHL Quarterfinals), in which the visiting Montreal Canadiens took a 4-goals-nil lead, the host Toronto Maple Leafs tied the game 4-goals-all, and the visiting Canadiens won the game 5-goals-4 in overtime (albeit at 4:14 of the first overtime instead of at 2:28 of the third). In NHL playoff series (all rounds), the home team for Game 7 has a 70-41 (.631) record (all rounds) and a 23-14 (.622) record (Preliminary round). At home for Game 7, the Vancouver Canucks have a 2-1 record (all rounds), and a 2-0 record in the NHL Preliminary round. On the road for Game 7, the Calgary Flames have a 2-1 record (all rounds) and will be playing its first Preliminary-round Game 7 on the road.

After Game 5: With best-of-7 series 912 back in British Columbia for Game 5, the Calgary Flames visited and defeated the Vancouver Canucks 2-goals-1 to take a 3-games-2 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Calgary Flames have an overall series record of 5-2 (with an active two-series losing streak) and a Preliminary-round series record of 1-2. When trailing 3-games-2, the Vancouver Canucks have an overall series record of 3-7 and a Preliminary-round series record of 3-4. For Calgary, the win order and site order for series 912 have been LWLWW @ VVHHV. Eleven MLB, NBA, and NHL best-of-7 playoff series have followed these win/site paths. In all eleven cases, Game 6 was at home for the team leading 3-games-2. In six of the eleven cases did the Game 6 home team win the game (and thus the series). But in all five cases in which the road team snagged a Game 6 victory to force a 3-games-all tie, that team (always at home for Game 7) then won Game 7 to win the series. Thus, history uniformly suggests that the Calgary Flames had better either win Game 6 (and thus the series) on home ice, or break precedent by winning Game 7 on the road. In other words: When a best-of-7 series follows win/site paths of LWLWW @ VVHHV, the Game 6 winner has thus far (over 11 such series) won the series 100% of the time.

After Game 4: The Calgary Flames hosted and defeated the Vancouver Canucks 4-goals-nil to tie best-of-7 series 912 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vancouver Canucks have an overall series record of 1-5 and a Preliminary-round series record of 1-4, while the Calgary Flames have an overall series record of 4-2 and a Preliminary-round series record of 1-2. From 1939 through 2003, when a team wins an NHL best-of-7 series Game 4 by a 4-goals-nil tally, its overall series record is 5-4.

After Game 3: With the site of best-of-7 series 912 now in Alberta province, the Vancouver Canucks for Game 3 visited and defeated the Calgary Flames 2-goals-1 to take a 2-games-1 series lead. Games 2-3 of series 912 have thus both ended in 2-goals-1 victories for the road teams. In only one previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series had the road teams won both Games 2 and 3 by 2-goals-1 scores: In best-of-7 series 812 (the 2000 NHL Stanley Cup Finals), the Dallas Stars won Game 2 in New Jersey 2-goals-1, but the New Jersey Devils rebounded for a 2-goals-1 Game 3 victory on Dallas ice. New Jersey would win series 812 (and thus the 2000 NHL Stanley Cup) in six games. When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the Vancouver Canucks have a 6-3 overall series record, a 2-2 Preliminary-round series record, and a 6-3 overall Game 4 record. When trailing 2-games-1, the Calgary Flames have a 1-7 overall series record, an 0-4 Preliminary-round series record, and a 2-6 overall Game 4 record (the Flames' sole series victory upon trailing 2-games-1 occurred in best-of-7 series 540 - the 1989 NHL Stanley Cup Finals vs. the Montreal Canadiens). In NBA/NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 playoff action, when a team opens a series WLW @ HHV (as Vancouver has), its overall series record is 8-4 with an eight-series winning streak still in effect.

After Game 2: Capturing their first best-of-7 playoff game victory since series 678 Game 5 (vs. the San Jose Sharks in 1995 Preliminary-round play), the Calgary Flames visited and defeated the Vancouver Canucks 2-goals-1. The Flames thus even series 912 at one game all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Calgary Flames have an overall series record of 6-7 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Preliminary-round series record of 1-4 (with, again, an active four-series losing streak). The Vancouver Canucks when tied 1-game-all have a 7-8 overall series record and a 4-3 Preliminary-round series record.

After Game 1: The Vancouver Canucks hosted and defeated the Calgary Flames 5-goals-3 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 playoff series 912. When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vancouver Canucks have a 5-6 series record (with an active three-series losing streak) and a 2-3 Preliminary-round series record. When trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Calgary Flames have a 3-11 series record (with an active six-series losing streak) and a 1-7 Preliminary-round series record (with an active six-series losing streak). The Calgary Flames have not won a best-of-7 playoff series since series 540 -- the 1989 NHL Stanley Cup Finals. Since series 540, Calgary has an 0-6 series record, and, with the 5-goal-3 loss to Vancouver in series 912, an 0-7 Game 1 record. Calgary has now lost seven straight best-of-7 format playoff games: In their previous best-of-7 series, they were swept by the Chicago Blackhawks (series 704 -- in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round), and they lost the last two games of series 678 to the San Jose Sharks in the 1995 NHL Preliminary round.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2003-04 regular season, Vancouver finished 7 points ahead of Calgary. From 1939 through 2003, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 7 regular-season points, they have gone on to post a 12-4 (.750) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 912 is the 21st best-of-7 playoff series for Calgary and the 22nd for Vancouver. In best-of-7 playoff series, Calgary has an 8-12 series record, a 2-7 Prelim-round series record, and a 6-14 Game 1 record, while Vancouver has a 9-12 record, a 5-5 Prelim-round record, and an 11-10 Game 1 record. Series 912 is the third best-of-7 meeting between Calgary and Vancouver; the teams split best-of-7 playoff series 532 and 656.