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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played on road
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2004 MLB Semifinals round - Series 936.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Schedule and 2004 Results
Regular Season Records: New York 101-61, Boston 98-64
Game 1 on Tuesday, 12 Oct: Boston loses at New York, 10-runs-7
Game 2 on Wednesday, 13 Oct: Boston loses at New York, 3-runs-1
Game 3 on Saturday, 16 Oct: New York wins at Boston, 19-runs-8
Game 4 on Sunday, 17 Oct: New York loses at Boston, 6-runs-4 (12 inn)
Game 5 on Monday, 18 Oct: New York loses at Boston, 5-runs-4 (14 inn)
Game 6 on Tuesday, 19 Oct: Boston wins at New York, 4-runs-2
Game 7 on Wednesday, 20 Oct: Boston wins at New York, 10-runs-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the New York Yankees 10-runs-3 to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 936, 4-games-3. Boston thus becomes the first-ever MLB team to trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil and win the series. The series 936 victory by the Boston Red Sox improves their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 6-8 in all rounds (ending a five-series losing streak) and to 2-4 in the MLB Semifinals. The series 936 loss by the New York Yankees drops their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 32-13 in all rounds and to 6-1 in the MLB Semifinals. The Boston Red Sox are now 3-5 overall and 1-3 on the road in best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 7s; the New York Yankees are now 6-7 overall and 2-4 at home in such Game 7s. A total of 86 runs were plated by both teams in this series, which is the most ever in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series. The seven-run series 936 Game 7 loss was the worst (by victory margin size) MLB home-team Game 7 loss since series 111 (the 1956 World Series), in which the New York Yankees notched a 9-runs-nil victory over the Dodgers in Brooklyn. The seven-run series 936 Game 7 loss was the fourth-worst (by victory margin size) MLB home-team Game 7 loss ever, behind only the Game 7 home-team losses in series 5 (the Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Tigers in Detroit 8-runs-nil in the 1909 World Series Game 7), series 111 (cited above), and series 27 (the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Tigers in Detroit 11-runs-nil in the 1934 World Series Game 7). Series 936 is only the third MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series to show a win order of LLLWWWW; the previous two were series 42 (won by the NHL Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1942 NHL Finals) and series 295 (won by the New York Islanders in the 1975 NHL Quarterfinals round). When the Boston Red Sox trailed series 936 by a 3-games-nil deficit, the MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 historical victory probability of a Sox series victory was .0084 or 0.84% (2 series wins, 236 series losses in that situation). When the New York Islanders trailed series 295 by a 3-games-nil deficit, the MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 historical victory probability of an Islanders series victory [from 1905 through the Fall 1974] was .0123 or 1.23% (one series win, 80 series losses in that situation). The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs were the first MLB/NBA/NHL team to trail a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-nil but win the series; prior to 1942, however, only twelve teams had even fallen into the 3-games-nil hole. Thus, while surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit has always and will always be difficult, doing so now involved working through a much greater amount of historical baggage.

After Game 6: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the New York Yankees 4-runs-2 to tie series 936 at 3-games-all. Boston thus becomes the first-ever MLB team to trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil and force a Game 7. With the loss, the New York Yankees now have a best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 6 record of 15-9; with the win, the Boston Red Sox now have a best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 6 record of 6-3. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series that last the full seven games, the New York Yankees have a series/Game 7 record of 6-6 (2-3 in Game 7s at home), while the Boston Red Sox have a series/Game 7 record of 2-5 (0-3 in Game 7s on the road). The Boston Red Sox now own a perfect best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 6 record of 5-0 after having trailed 3-games-2. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, home teams in Game 7 have a 170-78 (.685) record. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, home teams in Game 7 have a 24-20 (.545) record. Here are the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series in which one team seized a 3-games-nil lead but the trailing team forced Game 7: series 32 (1939 NHL Semifinals) - Boston Bruins led 3-games-nil, won in seven vs. New York Rangers; series 42 (1942 NHL Finals) - Detroit Red Wings led 3-games-nil, lost in seven vs. Toronto Maple Leafs; series 54 (1945 NHL Finals) - Toronto Maple Leafs led 3-games-nil, won in seven vs. Detroit Red Wings; series 85 (1951 NBA Finals) - Rochester Royals led 3-games-nil, won in seven vs. New York Knickerbockers; series 295 (1975 NHL Quarterfinals) - Pittsburgh Penguins led, lost in seven vs. New York Islanders; series 296 (1975 NHL Semifinals) - Philadelphia Flyers led, won in seven vs. New York Islanders; series 669 (1994 NBA Quarterfinals) - Utah Jazz led, won in seven vs. Denver Nuggets; series 894 (2003 NBA Preliminary round) - Dallas Mavericks led, won in seven vs. Portland Trailblazers. Thus, ironically, the 2004 New York Yankees hope to emulate the NHL Boston Bruins of sixty-five years ago (and force the 2004 Boston Red Sox to emulate the 1939 NHL New York Rangers), while the 2004 Boston Red Sox hope to emulate the 1975 New York Islanders.

After Game 5: In the last game of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 936 to be played in Boston, the host Red Sox outlasted the New York Yankees 5-runs-4 with the winning run in the bottom of the fourteenth inning. New York now holds a 3-games-2 series 936 lead. The win improves the Boston best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 5 record to 7-5; the loss lowers the New York Yankees' best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 5 record to 22-12. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the only previous series to feature a WWWLL win order with an HHVVV site order was series 796 (the 1999 National League Championship Series) pitting the Atlanta Braves vs. the New York Mets: After winning Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 in New York, Atlanta then lost Games 4-5 in New York (the latter in 15 innings) before winning Game 6 in Atlanta. The 1999 Atlanta Braves thus set a favorable precedent for the 2004 New York Yankees. Series 936 Game 5 ties Game 2 of series 12 (the 1916 World Series) for the third-longest best-of-7 format MLB playoff game in terms of innings played: In series 12 Game 2, the host Boston Red Sox scored one run in the bottom of the 14th inning to defeat the visiting Brooklyn Dodgers. The only two longer best-of-7 MLB playoff games (in terms of innings) were series 796 Game 5 (in the 1999 National League Championship Series), in which the New York Mets hosted and defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-runs-3 in 15 innings, and series 474 Game 6 (in the 1986 N.L.C.S.), in which the New York Mets visited and defeated the Houston Astros 7-runs-6 in 16 innings. The New York Yankees led the Boston Red Sox 4-runs-2 after 7.5 innings in series 936 Game 5: In the 766 best-of-7 MLB playoff games prior to tonight, road teams leading by two runs after 7.5 innings had a 67-10 (.870) game record. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the New York Yankees have a 13-2 series record and a 9-6 Game 6 record; when trailing 3-games-2, the Boston Red Sox have a 1-3 series record but a perfect 4-0 Game 6 record.

After Game 4: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the New York Yankees 6-runs-4 in 12 innings, thereby staving off elimination from the 2004 MLB playoffs. New York now leads best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 936 by a 3-games-1 margin. The win improved the Boston best-of-7 playoff series Game 4 record to 4-4, while the loss dropped the Yankees' best-of-7 playoff series Game 4 record to 28-17. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1, the New York Yankees have a series record of 12-0; when trailing 3-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 1-2. The sole Boston series victory under such adverse circumstances came in the 1986 American League Championship Series vs. the California Angels. Boston trailed series 936 Game 4 by one run after 8.5 innings. In the history of best-of-7 format MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2003, home teams trailing by one run after 8.5 innings had an 11-77 (.125) game record. With Boston actually winning Game 4, the Red Sox series 936 win order is LLLW: From 1905 through the Spring 2004 playoffs, MLB/NBA/NHL teams with an LLLW win order had a 2-80 (.0244) series record. Thus, after 8.5 innings of Game 4, the Red Sox historical victory probability of winning series 936 was .0244 x .125 = .0030 (or, three in one-thousand).

After Game 3: The New York Yankees visited and defeated the Boston Red Sox 19-runs-8 to take a 3-games-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 936 lead. Those 19 runs by New York set a new best-of-7 MLB playoff game record (all rounds) for most runs in a game, breaking the old mark of 18 runs set by the New York Yankees on the road vs. the New York Giants in series 29 (the 1936 World Series) Game 2. In best-of-7 MLB Semifinals-round play: The previous record for most runs by one team in a game was 15, set by the 1996 Atlanta Braves in National League Championship Series Game 7; the previous record for most runs by one team on the road was 14, set by the 1993 Atlanta Braves in N.L.C.S. Game 2 and tied by the 1996 Braves in N.L.C.S. Game 5 and by the 2001 Seattle Mariners in American League Championship Series Game 3; the previous record for most runs by both teams in a game was 19, set in Game 6 of the 1999 N.L.C.S. by the host Atlanta Braves and the visiting New York Mets. New York and Boston also set new best-of-7 MLB playoff game records (all rounds) for most combined runs (17 after 3.5 innings and after 4 innings; 19 after 4.5 innings; 23 after 6.5 innings; 25 after 7 innings) at various points in the game. The 13 runs by the New York Yankees after 4.5 innings tied for the most ever by a road team after 4.5 innings of a best-of-7 MLB playoff game (the Detroit Tigers led the Cardinals in St. Louis 13-runs-nil after 4.5 innings of 1968 World Series Game 6). The 17 runs by the Yankees after 6.5 innings set a new record for most runs by a visiting team after 6.5 innings of a best-of-7 MLB playoff game (the previous record was 15 runs after 6.5 innings, set by the Yankees in Pittsburgh vs. the Pirates in 1960 World Series Game 2). The 17 runs by the Yankees after 7.5 innings set a new record for most runs by a visiting team after 7.5 innings of a best-of-7 MLB playoff game (the previous record was 15 runs after 7.5 innings, set by the Yankees in Pittsburgh vs. the Pirates in 1960 World Series Game 2 and tied by the Toronto Blue Jays in Philadelphia vs. the Phillies in 1993 World Series Game 4). Series 936 Game 3 was not a pitcher's duel. With the win, the New York Yankees improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 3 record to 29-16, while that for the Boston Red Sox falls to 5-9 (with just one win in their last nine best-of-7 Game 3s). Sweep likelihoods: When leading 3-games-nil in previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the New York Yankees have an 8-1 Game 4 record (with the sole loss suffered in 1937 World Series vs. the New York Giants - the Yankees then won Game 5); when trailing 3-games-nil in previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a 0-2 Game 4 record. Boston actually led this game 4-runs-3 after two innings, so even if the Yankees sweep the series, the sweep will not be an "annihilation" (which would have been the case were the Red Sox to have never led in a putative series 936 sweep).

After Game 2: Taking a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 936, the New York Yankees hosted and defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-runs-1. New York thus improves its best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 2 record to 27-19, while that for Boston falls to 5-10. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil, the New York Yankees have a best-of-7 series record of 14-2 in all rounds, and 2-0 in just the MLB Semifinals. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Red Sox have a best-of-7 series record of 0-3 in all rounds, and 0-3 in just the MLB Semifinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, when a team wins Game 1 by three runs and Game 2 by two runs, its series record is 1-0 (with the sole precedent offered by the sweeping New York Giants in series 101 - the 1954 World Series). In best-of-7 MLB Semifinals (League Championship Series) history, teams winning Games 1-2 have a 13-2 series record with an active 13-series winning streak. In best-of-7 MLB history (all rounds), teams winning Games 1-2 at home are on an active 14-series winning streak.

After Game 1: The New York Yankees opened the 2004 American League Championship Series with a 10-runs-7 victory over the visiting Boston Red Sox. The game ties Game 1 of the 2003 National League Championship Series (best-of-7 series 904) as the highest scoring best-of-7 MLB Semifinals Game 1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Yankees have a 22-5 (.815) series record and an active seven-series winning streak; when trailing a best-of-7 series 1-game-nil, the Boston Red Sox have a 2-4 (.333) series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2004 regular season, New York finished three games ahead of Boston. From 1905 through 2003, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a 5-3 (.625) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 936 is the 45th best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Yankees, and the fourteenth for the Boston Red Sox. In best-of-7 playoff series, Boston has a 5-8 series record (with an active five-series losing streak), a 1-4 Semifinals-round series record, and a 7-6 Game 1 record, while New York has a 32-12 series record, a 6-0 Semifinals-round record, and a 27-17 Game 1 record. Series 936 is the third best-of-7 meeting between Boston and New York, with New York winning both of the previous series (MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 795 [the 1999 American League Championship Series] and 903 [the 2003 American League Championship Series]).