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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2003 NHL Finals round - Series 887.
Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs New Jersey Devils

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: New Jersey 46-20-10-6=108pts, Anaheim 40-27-9-6=95pts
Game 1 on Tuesday, 27 May: Anaheim loses at New Jersey, 3-goals-nil
Game 2 on Thursday, 29 May: Anaheim loses at New Jersey, 3-goals-nil
Game 3 on Saturday, 31 May: New Jersey loses at Anaheim, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 4 on Monday, 02 Jun: New Jersey loses at Anaheim, 1-goal-nil (OT)
Game 5 on Thursday, 05 Jun: Anaheim loses at New Jersey, 6-goals-3
Game 6 on Saturday, 07 Jun: New Jersey loses at Anaheim, 5-goals-2
Game 7 on Monday, 09 Jun: Anaheim loses at New Jersey, 3-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The New Jersey Devils defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks 3-goals-nil to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 887 (the 2003 NHL Finals), 4-games-3, thus capturing their third NHL championship. The win order for series 887 was WWLLWLW: Series 887 is the third NHL Finals series, the eighth NHL series (all rounds), and the 23rd MLB, NBA, and NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order. The home teams in NHL Finals-round Game 7s are now 10-2. The New Jersey Devils now have a best-of-7 NHL playoff series record of 20-11, while the Anaheim Mighty Ducks now have a best-of-7 NHL playoff series record of 4-3.

After Game 6: The Anaheim Mighty Ducks hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 5-goals-2 to tie the 2003 NHL Finals (MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 887) at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the New Jersey Devils have a 5-6 series record (and a 2-1 series record with Game 7 at home), while the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 1-0 (and a 0-0 series record with Game 7 on the road). In best-of-7 playoff series through the 2003 NHL and NBA Semifinals (Conference Finals), the home team had an NHL Game 7 record (all rounds) of 69-41 (.627) and an NHL Finals Game 7 record of 9-2 (.818).

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 887 back in New Jersey for Game 5, the New Jersey Devils defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks 6-goals-3 to take a 3-games-2 series 887 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the New Jersey Devils have a 9-4 series record and a 6-7 Game 6 record; when trailing 3-games-2, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a 1-0 series record and a 1-0 Game 6 record (from best-of-7 series 730, in which the Ducks defeated the Phoenix Coyotes in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round). The foremost precedent for a Duck series victory remains that from the 1971 Montreal Canadiens, which opened best-of-7 playoff series 238 (the 1971 NHL Finals) LLWWL @ VVHHV but won Games 6 and 7 to defeat the Chicago Blackhawks for the Stanley Cup in 1971.

After Game 4: The Anaheim Mighty Ducks hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 1-game-nil in overtime, thus tying best-of-7 playoff series 887 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in an NHL best-of-7 playoff series, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 7-8 and a Game 5 record of 10-5, while the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-1. In best-of-7 NHL Finals-round playoff series from 1939 through 2002, when a team (such as the 2003 New Jersey Devils) begins a Finals-round series with a win order of WWLL at a site order of HHVV, its series record is 6-1: The sole loss occurred in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 238, in which the Chicago Blackhawks were defeated by the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals. The 1971 Montreal Canadiens thus set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 887 in Anaheim for Games 3-4, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-2 in Game 3 of the 2003 NHL Finals, thus cutting the New Jersey series lead to 2-games-1. Anaheim won the game on a goal 6:59 into the first overtime. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 12-2 (including a current 10-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 6-8; the Anaheim Mighty Ducks are trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1 for the first time. In best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL Finals-round playoff series from 1905 through 2002, when a team (such as the 2003 New Jersey Devils) held a 2-games-1 lead at site order HHV (home-home-road), its series record was 79-14, with a 29-series winning streak and counting.

After Game 2: For the second consecutive game, the New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks by a score of 3-goals-nil. New Jersey now leads MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 887 by 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 8-0 and a Game 3 record of 5-3; when trailing 2-games-nil, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 3 record of 0-2. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2003 NHL Semifinals, when the home team wins Games 1-2 at home and wins both by shutout, its series record is 4-0. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round play, when a team wins Games 1-2 at home, its series record is 72-10 with a current 24-series winning streak. In best-of-7 NHL Finals, when a team wins Games 1-2 at home, its series record 27-1; the only team to lose in this situation was the Chicago Blackhawks, which fell in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 238 to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals. The 1971 Montreal Canadiens thus set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

After Game 1: The New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks 3-goals-nil to win Game 1 of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 887. When leading an NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 11-4 (with a current 7-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 8-7, while the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 0-2 (both sweeps) and a Game 2 record of 0-2. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2003 NHL Semifinals, when the home team wins Game 1 by shutout (as New Jersey has), its series record is 31-10 and its series record in the Finals round is 1-1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, the New Jersey Devils finished 13 points ahead of the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. From 1939 through the 2003 NHL Semifinals, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 13 regular-season points, it has gone on to post a 6-7 (.462) best-of-7 series record against that opponent (and a 2-0 record in best-of-7 NHL Finals). The last NHL team to lead a best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 13 regular-season points and win the series was the Dallas Stars, in best-of-7 series 829 vs. the Edmonton Oilers in the 2001 NHL Preliminary round; the last NHL team to lead a best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 13 regular-season points and lose the series was the Colorado Avalanche, in best-of-7 series 735 vs. the Detroit Red Wings in the 1997 NHL Semifinals round. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 887 is the first best-of-7 meeting between New Jersey and Anaheim. From 1939 through 2002, the team playing Game 1 of an NHL Finals series at home has won 73.4% of those series, and has won the last five Stanley Cup Finals. But in recent years, at least, teams losing an NHL Finals series upon playing Game 1 at home have tended to lose quickly (1997: Philadelphia Flyers - swept; 1995: Detroit Red Wings - swept; 1990: Boston Bruins - lost in five; 1986: Calgary Flames - lost in five; 1985: Flyers - lost in five; 1984: New York Islanders - lost in five; 1983: Edmonton Oilers - swept). Of the seventeen teams to play Game 1 at home but lose a best-of-7 NHL Finals series, eleven of those 17 (64.7%) lost the series in five or fewer games.