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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2003 NHL Semifinals round - Series 886.
Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs Minnesota Wild

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Minnesota 42-29-10-1=95pts, Anaheim 40-27-9-6=95pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 10 May: Anaheim wins at Minnesota, 1-goal-nil (2OT)
Game 2 on Monday, 12 May: Anaheim wins at Minnesota, 2-goals-nil
Game 3 on Wednesday, 14 May: Minnesota loses at Anaheim, 4-goals-nil
Game 4 on Friday, 16 May: Minnesota loses at Anaheim, 2-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Anaheim Mighty Ducks hosted and defeated the Minnesota Wild 2-goals-1 to achieve a 4-games-nil sweep of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 886. Anaheim now has a 4-2 best-of-7 series record; Minnesota now has a 2-1 best-of-7 series record. The Minnesota Wild scored the first goal of Game 4 at 4:37 into the first period, so Anaheim had managed to shut out its opponent for the second longest (exclusive of overtime play) period of time into a best-of-7 series. In series 54 (the 1945 NHL Finals), the Toronto Maple Leafs took a shutout streak against the Detroit Red Wings 8:35 into the first period of Game 4. The Minnesota Wild held a lead in series 886 for 3 minutes 53 seconds -- enough to avert an "annihilation" (if not the sweep). The total of one goal scored by the Minnesota Wild in series 886 is a new NHL low in best-of-7 playoff series, surpassing the old mark of two goals by one team in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series (set in the 1952 Finals by the Montreal Canadiens in best-of-7 series 89 and equaled in the 2002 Preliminary round by the Philadelphia Flyers in best-of-7 series 849). The ten total goals by both teams in series 886 is also a new best-of-7 NHL playoff series low, surpassing the old mark of 13 set in the 1952 Finals by the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings (series 89), tied in the 2001 Preliminary round by the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators (series 824), and tied again in the 2002 Preliminary round by the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators (series 849). The four-game sweep by Anaheim was the 22nd in the NHL Semifinals, the 38th in MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals, the 93rd in the NHL (all rounds), and the 151st overall (MLB, NBA, NHL, all rounds).

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 886 in Anaheim for Games 3-4, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the Minnesota Wild 4-goals-nil to take a 3-games-nil series lead. The Minnesota Wild trail a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil for the first time; when leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-0 (against the Detroit Red Wings earlier this playoff season). The Anaheim Mighty Ducks have become only the second team in best-of-7 NHL playoff series history since 1939 to achieve shutout victories in their first three games. The first team to do so in an NHL best-of-7 playoff series was the Toronto Maple Leafs in series 54 (the 1945 NHL Finals vs. the Detroit Red Wings): The Red Wings scored 8:35 into Game 4 to take a 1-goal-nil Game 4 lead, and went on to win Games 4-6 before losing to Toronto in Game 7. Teams such as Anaheim which win Games 1-2 on the road and win Game 3 at home in NHL best-of-7 playoff series have a 24-1 series record: The only loss was sustained by the Detroit Red Wings in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 42 vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1942 NHL Finals ... in the first-ever best-of-7 NHL series in which a team won Games 1-2 on the road and Game 3 at home. The last MLB, NBA, or NHL team to trail a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-nil and win the series was the 1975 New York Islanders, which, as the Minnesota Wild now are, were completing only their third season of existence.

After Game 2: The Anaheim Mighty Ducks visited and defeated the Minnesota Wild 2-goals-nil to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 886. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 3 record of 1-2; the Minnesota Wild are trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil for the first time. In best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 through 2002, teams winning Games 1-2 on the road in a Semifinals-round series had a 22-1 series record and have a current 21-series winning streak (the only team to lose a Semifinals best-of-7 series after winning Games 1-2 on the road was the Boston Bruins, which lost series 53 to the Detroit Red Wings in the 1945 NHL Semifinals). In NHL best-of-7 playoff series from 1939 through 2002, teams winning Games 1-2 by shutouts had a 7-0 series record; six of those seven series were won in five games or less. Through two games of series 886, a total of three goals have been scored. In best-of-7 NHL playoff history from 1939 through the 2003 Quarterfinals, only one other series had as few as three goals through the first two games: best-of-7 series 54 -- the 1945 NHL Finals between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings.

After Game 1: Scoring the only goal of Game 1 at 8:06 into the second overtime, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks visited and defeated the Minnesota Wild 1-goal-nil, thus taking a 1-game-nil series 886 lead. In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, the game record of road teams at 8:05 into the second overtime was 29-16 (.644). When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 2 record of 3-0; when trailing 1-game-nil, the Minnesota Wild have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 2 record of 1-0.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, the Minnesota Wild and the Anaheim Mighty Ducks finished tied with 95 points. Minnesota won home-ice advantage via two more wins than Anaheim. From 1939 through the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals, when an NHL team was tied in regular-season points with its best-of-7 playoff series opponent, the home team in Game 1 has gone on to post a 12-12 (.500) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 886 is the first best-of-7 meeting between Minnesota and Anaheim.