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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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2003 NHL Preliminary round - Series 876.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Philadelphia 45-20-13-4=107pts, Toronto 44-28-7-3=98pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 9 Apr: Toronto wins at Philadelphia, 5-goals-3
Game 2 on Friday, 11 Apr: Toronto loses at Philadelphia, 4-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 14 Apr: Philadelphia loses at Toronto, 4-goals-3 (2OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 16 Apr: Philadelphia wins at Toronto, 3-goals-2 (3OT)
Game 5 on Saturday, 19 Apr: Toronto loses at Philadelphia, 4-goals-1
Game 6 on Monday, 21 Apr: Philadelphia loses at Toronto, 2-goals-1 (2OT)
Game 7 on Tuesday, 22 Apr: Toronto loses at Philadelphia, 6-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: On home ice for the final game of series 876, the Philadelphia Flyers defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-goals-1 to win series 876, 4-games-3. The win order for Philadelphia was LWLWWLW: The 2003 Philadelphia Flyers thus become the second team in best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round playoff series, the sixth team in best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and the 15th team in best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series (all rounds) to achieve a win order of LWLWWLW.

After Game 6: Having returned to Ontario province, the Toronto Maple Leafs once again won a multiple-overtime game at home (2-goals-1 in this case) to even series 876 with the Philadelphia Flyers at 3-games-all. The Toronto Maple Leafs scored the winning goal 10:51 into the second overtime. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2002, the home team game record at 10:50 into the second overtime was 12-24, so (as in Game 3) Toronto had only a historical 1-in-3 probability of winning a game that far into overtime. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have an 11-8 series record, while that for the Philadelphia Flyers is 5-5. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series teams that post a WLWLLW win order with a VVHHVH site order (i.e., the Toronto Maple Leafs) have only a 1-10 record in Game 7: The sole winner (which thus provides a favorable precedent for the Toronto Maple Leafs) was the NHL Florida Panthers in best-of-7 series 710, a 1996 NHL Semifinals series in which Florida defeated the Penguins in Game 7 in Pittsburgh.

After Game 5: With series 876 having returned to Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Flyers replicated Game 2 by defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs on home ice, 4-goals-1 (just as in Game 2). Philadelphia now leads the series, 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 series 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 14-2 series record; when trailing 3-games-2, the Toronto Maple Leafs are 6-12. Through five games, series 876 was in perfect alignment (LWLWW @ HHVVH) with MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 877 pitting the Dallas Stars against the Edmonton Oilers (Dallas won series 877 in six games).

After Game 4: For the second consecutive game, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers needed multiple overtimes to reach a decision. In Game 4, 113:54 into the game, Philadelphia scored to defeat Toronto 3-goals-2 and tie series 876 at 2-games-all. Once again, taking a game deeply into overtime bodes ill for the home team: In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, at 113:53 into the game (the second before the visiting Flyers scored), the home team had a game record of only 1-10 (.091). When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 19-13 series record, while that for the Philadelphia Flyers is 11-3.

After Game 3: With series 876 having shifted to Ontario, the Toronto Maple Leafs scored at 7:20 into the second overtime to defeat the visiting Philadelphia Flyers 4-goals-3, thus taking a 2-games-1 lead in series 876. In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, inclusive, home teams at 7:19 of the second overtime had a game record of 16-31 (.340) -- the Toronto Maple Leafs historically had only a 1-in-3 chance of winning the game after it had gone so deeply into overtime. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 17-7; when trailing 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers are 6-14.

After Game 2: The Philadelphia Flyers defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-games-1 to tie best-of-7 series 876 at 1-game-all. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team loses Game 1 at home by two goals but wins Game 2 at home by three goals (as Philadelphia has), its series record is a woefully statistically insignificant 2-2. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs own a 15-18 (.455) series record, while the Philadelphia Flyers own a 12-13 (.480) series mark.

After Game 1: Toronto won Game 1 of MLB/NHL/NBA best-of-7 series 876 in Philadelphia, 5-goals-3. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team wins Game 1 by a 5-goals-3 score, its series record has been 15-8 (.652). When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a franchise series record of 19-12; when trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a franchise series record of 10-14.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, Philadelphia finished 9 points ahead of Toronto. From 1939 through 2002, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 9 regular-season points, it has gone on to post a 11-10 (.524) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 876 is the 51st best-of-7 playoff series for Philadelphia and the 71st for Toronto. In best-of-7 playoff series, Philadelphia has a 28-22 series record, a 6-5 Prelim-round series record, and a 26-24 Game 1 record, while Toronto has a 34-36 record, a 7-4 Prelim-round record, and a 31-39 Game 1 record. Series 876 is the fifth best-of-7 meeting between Toronto and Philadelphia; Philadelphia leads 3-1.