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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2003 NHL Preliminary round - Series 875.
Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 36-25-16-5=93pts, Washington 39-29-8-6=92pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 10 Apr: Washington wins at Tampa, 3-goals-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 12 Apr: Washington wins at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-3
Game 3 on Tuesday, 15 Apr: Tampa Bay wins at Washington, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 16 Apr: Tampa Bay wins at Washington, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Friday, 18 Apr: Washington loses at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1
Game 6 on Sunday, 20 Apr: Tampa Bay wins at Washington, 2-goals-1 (3OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Washington Capitals on District of Columbia ice, 2-goals-1 in the third overtime, to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 875, 4-games-2. Washington led the game 1-goal-nil with 4:07 left in the third period: In all best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, when the home team led by one goal with 4:07 left in the third period, its game record was 403-24 (.944). Tampa Bay tied the game with 4:06 left in the third, and won the game with a goal 4:03 into the third overtime. Yet another home team loses once the game has gone deeply into overtime: In all best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, the home team had a game record of only 6-14 at 4:02 into the third overtime. The Tampa Bay Lightning win order of LLWWWW is the seventh in NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 play, the eighteenth in NHL best-of-7 play (all rounds), and the 25th in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 play (all rounds).

After Game 5: For the first time in series 875, the home team won a game as the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Washington Capitals 2-goals-1 in Florida, thereby taking a 3-games-2 series 875 lead. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning lead 3-games-2 for the first time (in this, only their second-ever playoff series), while the Washington Capitals have a 1-6 series record when trailing 3-games-2. Based on that one series win, in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 504 (over the Philadelphia Flyers in the 1988 Preliminary round), the 1988 Washington Capitals provide a favorable precedent for their 2003 counterparts. For the Tampa Bay Lightning, the most recent favorable precedent was set in series 852 by the Detroit Red Wings (vs. the Vancouver Canucks in the 2002 Preliminary round): Detroit also lost the first two series games at home before rallying to win the series in six games.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning tied series 875 at 2-games-all with a 3-goals-1 victory over the Washington Capitals on Washington ice. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an 0-1 series record, while the Washington Capitals have a 2-5 series record. The win by the Lightning in Washington extends the streak of road victories to four in this series, marking the twenty-fourth time that an MLB, NBA, or NHL best-of-7 series has begun WWLL @ VVHH (or LLWW @ HHVV, depending on one's perspective). By contrast, 103 best-of-7 series have followed a WWLL @ HHVV path through the first four games (through the 2002 MLB World Series).

After Game 3: A 4-goals-3 win early in overtime allowed the Tampa Bay Lightning to reduce the series 875 lead by the Washington Capitals to 2-games-1. Series 875 is the eleventh best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round playoff series, the 29th best-of-7 NHL playoff series, and the 43rd best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series in which a team has won Games 1-2 on the road but lost Game 3 at home: Such teams (eg. the Washington Capitals) have a 5-5 series record in best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round playoffs, a 15-13 series record in best-of-7 NHL playoffs (all rounds), and a 24-18 record overall. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 699 (in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round), the Washington Capitals also won the first two games on the road and lost Game 3 at home; they proceeded to lose Games 4-6 and series 699 to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Those 1996 Pittsburgh Penguins thus set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Tampa Bay Lightning. When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a 5-6 series record but are currently on a three-series winning streak. The Tampa Bay Lightning are trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1 for the first time.

After Game 2: Another three-goal margin of victory characterized a 2003 NHL playoff game as the Washington Capitals won Game 2 of series 875 over the Tampa Bay Lightning, 6-goals-3. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team wins Game 1 by three goals and Game 2 by three goals, irrespective of site, its series record has been 12-0 (1.000). When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Capitals have a franchise series record of 1-2; the Tampa Bay Lightning are trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil for the first time in series 875.

After Game 1: The Washington Capitals won Game 1 of MLB/NHL/NBA best-of-7 series 875 over the Tampa Bay Lightning, 3-goals-nil. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team wins Game 1 by a shutout, its series record has been 46-24 (.657). When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a franchise series record of 4-10; when trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a franchise series record of 0-1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, Tampa Bay finished 1 point ahead of Washington. From 1939 through 2002, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 1 regular-season point, it has gone on to post a 6-2 (.750) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 875 is the 2nd best-of-7 playoff series for Tampa Bay and the 24th for Washington. In best-of-7 playoff series, Tampa Bay has a 0-1 series record, a 0-1 Prelim-round series record, and a 0-1 Game 1 record, while Washington has an 8-15 record, a 5-8 Prelim-round record, and a 14-9 Game 1 record. Series 875 is the first best-of-7 meeting between Washington and Tampa Bay.