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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2003 NHL Preliminary round - Series 873.
New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Ottawa 52-21-8-1=113pts, N.Y. Islanders 35-34-11-2=83pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 9 Apr: Islanders win at Ottawa, 3-goals-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 12 Apr: Islanders lose at Ottawa, 3-goals-nil
Game 3 on Monday, 14 Apr: Ottawa wins at Islanders, 3-goals-2 (2OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 16 Apr: Ottawa wins at Islanders, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Thursday, 17 Apr: Islanders lose at Ottawa, 4-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: Series 873 returned to Ottawa for Game 5, and the Ottawa Senators responded to their homecoming by defeating the New York Islanders 4-goals-1, thus winning their series 4-games-1. The win-order of the series was LWWWW; MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 873 is the sixth best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round series, the 27th best-of-7 NHL series (all rounds), and the 43rd best-of-7 series (MLB, NBA, and, NHL; all rounds) to follow this win-order.

After Game 4: The Ottawa Senators defeated the New York Islanders on Long Island 3-goals-1 to take a 3-games-1 lead in series 873. When leading a best-of-7 series 3-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a 2-0 series record; when trailing 3-games-1, the New York Islanders have a 2-8 series record. The last NHL team to trail WLLL @ VVHH but win the series was the New Jersey Devils in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 810 (in the 2000 NHL Semifinals vs. the Philadelphia Flyers; the Devils would go on to win the Stanley Cup that year); the last NHL team to do so in the Preliminary round was the St. Louis Blues in series 780 in 1999 vs. the Phoenix Coyotes.

After Game 3: With series 873 having shifted to Long Island, the Ottawa Senators defeated the New York Islanders 3-goals-2, on a goal 2:25 into the second overtime. Ottawa thus takes a 2-games-1 series lead. In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, inclusive, home teams at the 2:24 mark of the second overtime had posted a 29-38 (.433) game record -- winning games that go deeply into overtime is proving to be a difficult task on home ice. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Islanders have a 4-7 series record; when leading 2-games-1, the Ottawa Senators are 2-1.

After Game 2: Rebounding from their Game 1 shutout loss, the Ottawa Senators defeated the New York Islanders on home ice, 3-goals-nil, thus tying series 873 at 1-game-all. Series 873 is the second in best-of-7 NHL playoff history in which the teams pitched 3-goals-nil shutouts against each other in the first two games -- in series 726 (in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round), the Florida Panthers topped the New York Rangers 3-goals-nil in Florida, but the Rangers won Game 2 by a 3-goals-nil score in Florida; New York won that series in five games. The Ottawa Senators thus hope to emulate the New York Rangers from series 726, in series 873 against the New York Islanders. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Islanders have a series record of 7-4, while that for the Ottawa Senators is 2-2.

After Game 1: The New York Islanders won Game 1 of MLB/NHL/NBA best-of-7 series 873 over the Ottawa Senators, 3-goals-nil. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team wins Game 1 by a shutout, its series record has been 46-24 (.657). When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Islanders have a franchise series record of 14-2; when trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a franchise series record of 1-5.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, Ottawa finished 30 points ahead of the Islanders. From 1939 through 2002, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 30 regular-season points, it has gone on to post a 4-1 (.800) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 873 is the 35th best-of-7 playoff series for the Islanders and the 9th for Ottawa. In best-of-7 playoff series, New York has a 21-13 series record, a 2-4 Prelim-round series record, and a 16-18 Game 1 record, while Ottawa has a 2-6 record, a 2-4 Prelim-round record, and a 2-6 Game 1 record. Series 873 is the first best-of-7 meeting between New York and Ottawa.