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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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SEARCH RESULTS
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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2003 NBA Quarterfinals round - Series 898.
Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 60-22, Los Angeles 50-32
Game 1 on Monday, 5 May: Los Angeles loses at San Antonio, 87-pts-82
Game 2 on Wednesday, 7 May: Los Angeles loses at San Antonio, 114-pts-95
Game 3 on Friday, 9 May: San Antonio loses at Los Angeles, 110-pts-95
Game 4 on Sunday, 11 May: San Antonio loses at Los Angeles, 99-pts-95
Game 5 on Tuesday, 13 May: Los Angeles loses at San Antonio, 96-pts-94
Game 6 on Thursday, 15 May: San Antonio wins at Los Angeles, 110-pts-82

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Achieving the first road win in best-of-7 series 898, the San Antonio Spurs defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in Los Angeles, 110-pts-82, to secure a 4-games-2 series 898 victory over the three-time defending NBA champions. The win order for this series was WWLLWW: Series 898 is the 18th NBA best-of-7 series, the eighth NBA Quarterfinals-round best-of-7 series, the 12th NBA/NHL Quarterfinals-round best-of-7 series, and the 49th MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series (all rounds) to go through this particular win order. The San Antonio Spurs now have a best-of-7 series record of 10-12; the Los Angeles Lakers now have a best-of-7 series record of 52-24 (with a 10-series best-of-7 series winning streak now over).

After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 96-pts-94, thereby taking a 3-games-2 lead in best-of-7 series 898. When leading 3-games-2 in an NBA best-of-7 playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a 3-1 series record and a 2-2 Game 6 record, while the Los Angeles Lakers have a 3-6 series record and a 6-3 Game 6 record when trailing 3-games-2.

After Game 4: The Los Angeles Lakers hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs in Game 4 of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 898, 99-pts-95, to tie series 898 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in an NBA best-of-7 playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a 1-4 series record and a 1-4 Game 5 record, while the Los Angeles Lakers have a 15-6 series record and a 16-5 Game 5 record.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 898 in Los Angeles for Games 3 and 4, the Los Angeles Lakers hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 110-pts-95. San Antonio now has a 2-games-1 lead in best-of-7 series 898. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 5-1 and a Game 4 record of 5-1; when trailing 2-games-1, the Los Angeles Lakers have a series record of 5-14 and a Game 4 record of 6-13. From 1947 through 2002, NBA teams beginning a Quarterfinals-round series with a WWL win order and an HHV site order (such as the 2003 San Antonio Spurs) have a 39-1 series record and a 25-15 Game 4 record. Interestingly, the teams that follow this path and win Game 4 then have a 24-1 (.960) series record, while the teams that follow this path but lose Game 4 then have a 15-0 (1.000) series record. Literally interpreted, these results suggest that the Game 4 loser is 4% more likely to win the series than the Game 4 winner; of course, this result comes about through a quirk in the results (as opposed to any merit resulting from losing Game 4). The Phoenix Suns are responsible for that sole loss, having taken a 3-games-1 lead with a Game 4 victory over the Houston Rockets in best-of-7 series 691 but losing Games 5-7 to lose that 1995 Quarterfinals-round series.

After Game 2: The San Antonio Spurs again hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers, 114-pts-95, thereby taking a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 898. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a perfect series record of 7-0; when trailing 2-games-nil, the Los Angeles Lakers have a series record of 1-12, with the sole win occurring in best-of-7 series 211 (the 1969 NBA Quarterfinals, in which the Lakers defeated the San Francisco Warriors). From 1947 through 2002, teams leading an NBA Quarterfinals best-of-7 playoff series WW @ HH (such as San Antonio) had a 66-1 series record: The sole loss occurred in best-of-7 series 691, in which the Phoenix Suns were defeated by the Houston Rockets in their 1995 NBA Quarterfinals series. San Antonio has won the first two games of series 898 by a combined margin of 24 points: In best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through the 2003 NBA Preliminary round, when the team leading 2-games-nil had a combined victory margin of 20 or more points (irrespective of sites), its series record was 87-3 (.967), and when the team leading 2-games-nil had a combined victory margin of 24 or more points (irrespective of sites), its series record was 64-2 (.970).

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 87-pts-82, thereby taking a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 898. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have an 8-2 series record; when trailing 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Lakers have an 8-16 series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, San Antonio finished 10 games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. From 1947 through the 2003 NBA Preliminary round, when an NBA team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 10 regular-season games, it has gone on to post a 13-3 (.813) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 898 is the seventh best-of-7 meeting between the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs; Los Angeles has won four of the previous six.