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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2003 MLB Semifinals round - Series 903.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: New York 101-61, Boston 95-67
Game 1 on Wednesday, 8 Oct: Boston wins at New York, 5-runs-2
Game 2 on Thursday, 9 Oct: Boston loses at New York, 6-runs-2
Game 3 on Saturday, 11 Oct: New York wins at Boston, 4-runs-3
Game 4 on Monday, 13 Oct: New York loses at Boston, 3-runs-2
Game 5 on Tuesday, 14 Oct: New York wins at Boston, 4-runs-2
Game 6 on Wednesday, 15 Oct: Boston wins at New York, 9-runs-6
Game 7 on Thursday, 16 Oct: Boston loses at New York, 6-runs-5 (11)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: Trailing 4-runs-nil after 4.0 innings and 5-runs-2 after 7.5 innings, the New York Yankees tied MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 903 Game 7 with three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, and defeated the Boston Red Sox 6-runs-5 with a home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning. New York thus wins the series, advancing to series 905 (the 2003 World Series) vs. the series 904-winning Florida Marlins. With the victory, the Game 7 record for the New York Yankees in best-of-7 play improves to 6-6 (2-3 at home; all rounds), and 1-0 in best-of-7 MLB Semifinals. The best-of-7 Game 7 record for the Boston Red Sox falls to 2-5. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the New York Yankees now have a 32-11 overall series record (and a 6-0 MLB Semifinals series record), while the Boston Red Sox now have a 5-8 series record (1-8 in their last nine; five straight best-of-7 series losses and counting). The win order for the victorious New York Yankees was LWWLWLW. Series 903 thus becomes the seventeenth overall, the third in MLB (all rounds), and the first in MLB Semifinals play to follow this win order. In the 738 best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2002 [plus a pertinent result from the just-completed series 904], road teams leading by four runs after four innings had a 17-3 (.850) game record, while road teams leading by three runs after 7.5 innings had a 40-3 (.930) game record. Note that in series 904 Game 6, the host Chicago Cubs led by 3 runs after 7.0 innings. Home teams in that state in best-of-7 MLB playoff series (1905-2002) had a record of 52-5 (.912). Historically, the probability that the Cubs (last World Series win 1908) and the Red Sox (last World Series win 1918) would both fail to win their pennants after coming so close was 0.61%, or 1 in 163.

After Game 6: Trailing by two runs on the road after six full innings, the Boston Red Sox rallied in New York, defeating the Yankees 9-runs-6 in MLB/NBA/NHL series 903 Game 6. Boston thus forces series 903 to a seventh game, thus making 2003 the first year to feature two MLB Semifinals to go seven games since best-of-7 MLB Semifinals play began in 1985. The Boston Red Sox trailed Game 6 by two runs after six full innings. In the 738 best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2002, when the road team trailed by two runs after 6.0 innings, its game record was 11-77 (.125). With the victory, the Boston Red Sox improve their best-of-7 Game 6 record to 5-3, while that for the New York Yankees falls to 15-7. The best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 7 record for the Boston Red Sox is 2-4, while that for the New York Yankees is 5-6 (1-3 at home). From 1905 through the 2003 National League Championship Series, the home team in Game 7 of an MLB best-of-7 playoff series has a 5-3 Semifinals-round record and a 23-20 record overall. From 1905 through the 2003 National League Championship Series, teams posting a win order of LWWLWL through six games of a best-of-7 series (such as the New York Yankees in series 903) have a series record of 2-0: The winners were the St. Louis Cardinals in series 24 (the 1931 World Series) and the Cincinnati Reds in series 306 (the 1975 World Series). As have the 2003 New York Yankees, the 1931 St. Louis Cardinals in series 24 lost Game 1 and won Game 2 at home, won Game 3 and lost Game 4 and won Game 5 on the road, and lost Game 6 on the road. For MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals-round winning precedents given a best-of-7 win order of WLLWLW through six games, the Boston Red Sox must look outside of their own league: Teams going WLLWLW and winning a Semifinals-round Game 7 are the 2002 NBA Los Angeles Lakers (en route to the 2002 NBA championship), the 1975 NBA Golden State Warriors (en route to the 1975 NBA championship), and the 1941 NHL Boston Bruins (en route to the 1941 NHL championship).

After Game 5: In the final game of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 903 to be played in Boston, the New York Yankees defeated the host Red Sox 4-runs-2, thus taking a 3-games-2 lead in their MLB Semifinals (American League Championship Series). With the win, the New York Yankees improve their best-of-7 Game 5 record to 22-10; with the loss, the Boston Red Sox see their best-of-7 Game 5 record fall to 6-5. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the New York Yankees have a series record of 12-2 (but lost their last such series, to the Arizona Diamondbacks in best-of-7 series 847 -- the 2001 World Series). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 1-2 (the win occurred in their last such series, which was best-of-7 series 473 -- the 1986 American League Championship Series vs. the California Angels). In the history of the best-of-7 format MLB Semifinals, only once before had a team posted an LWWLW win order through five games: In series 474, the New York Mets did so in their 1986 National League Championship Series vs. the Houston Astros -- the Mets would win Game 6 and the series, and go on to win the 1986 World Series vs. the Boston Red Sox. Of the three MLB teams to post an LWWLW win order through the first five games of a best-of-7 playoff series, one of them had the Boston Red Sox as an opponent: In series 306, the Cincinnati Reds did so in the 1975 World Series, going on to win in seven games.

After Game 4: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the New York Yankees 3-runs-2, thereby tying MLB/NBA/NHL series 903 at 2-games-all. With the victory, Boston improves its best-of-7 Game 4 record to 6-7; with the loss, New York's best-of-7 Game 4 record falls to 28-15. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 0-3, with the three losses occurring in the World Series (MLB Finals) of 1946, 1975, and 1986. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the New York Yankees have a series record of 10-7: The last series victory occurred in the 1998 American League Championship Series (MLB Semifinals), while the last series loss occurred in the 2001 World Series (MLB Finals). In the previous 128 MLB best-of-7 playoff series, teams such as the 2003 New York Yankees that have lost Game 1 at home, won Game 2 at home and Game 3 on the road, and lost Game 4 on the road have compiled a 3-0 series record (the three winners were the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1931 and 1982 World Series, and the Anaheim Angels in the 2002 World Series).

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 903 having shifted to Boston, the New York Yankees visited and defeated the Red Sox 4-runs-3, thereby taking a 2-games-1 series lead. Thus far, series 903 has been tracking series 904 perfectly, in that the New York Yankees in series 903 have done exactly what the Chicago Cubs in series 904 have done: Lose Game 1 at home, win Game 2 at home, and win Game 3 on the road. The win improves New York's best-of-7 MLB playoff series Game 3 record to 27-16; the loss drops Boston's best-of-7 MLB playoff series Game 3 record to 5-8. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Yankees have a series record of 14-5 (including an active five-series winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 1-3 (with the sole victory occurring in series 473, the 1986 American League Championship Series). The last MLB team to win Game 1, lose Games 2-3 (irrespective of site), and win its best-of-7 series was the New York Yankees in series 770 (the 1998 American League Championship Series): Ironically, those 1998 New York Yankees set the most recent precedent for a comeback series victory by the 2003 Boston Red Sox (against the 2003 New York Yankees).

After Game 2: The New York Yankees hosted and defeated the Boston Red Sox 6-runs-2, thereby tying MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 903 at 1-game-all. The loss drops the Boston best-of-7 Game 2 game record to 5-8 (and extends their Game 2 losing streak to four straight), while the win improves New York's best-of-7 Game 2 game record to 24-19. Series 903 is the 25th in which the New York Yankees have hosted Games 1 and 2: In those twenty-five, only twice have the Yankees trailed 2-games-nil after those first two games (in series 158, in which New York was swept in the 1963 World Series by the Los Angeles Dodgers; in series 722, in which New York swept Games 3-6 in the 1996 World Series to defeat the Atlanta Braves). Series 903 is the first MLB best-of-7 series in which a team has lost Game 1 by three runs and won Game 2 by four. When tied 1-game-all after the first two games of a best-of-7 playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 4-3, while the New York Yankees have a series record of 13-5 (including an active four-series winning streak).

After Game 1: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the New York Yankees 5-runs-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 903 (the 2003 American League Championship Series). Boston thus improves its best-of-7 Game 1 record to 7-6, while that for the Yankees falls to 27-16. The victory for the Boston Red Sox ends a three-game best-of-7 Game 1 losing streak (the Red Sox had lost Game 1 in best-of-7 series 523 [the 1988 American League Championship Series], 573 [the 1990 A.L.C.S.], and 795 [the 1999 A.L.C.S.]). After losing Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the New York Yankees have a 9-6 series record; after winning Game 1 of such a series, the Boston Red Sox have a 3-3 series record. In the 128 previous MLB best-of-7 playoff series, when a team won Game 1 by three runs, its series record was 15-7 (.682). Game victories in best-of-7 MLB playoff series had been hard to come by for the Boston Red Sox in their recent history: Entering Game 1 of series 903, the Red Sox were 1-14 in their last fifteen best-of-7 MLB playoff series games (beginning with Game 6 of the 1986 World Series).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2003 regular season, New York finished six games ahead of Boston. From 1905 through 2002, when an MLB team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by six regular-season games, it has gone on to post a 5-3 (.625) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 903 is the 43rd best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Yankees (their first since 2001) and the lucky 13th for the Boston Red Sox (their first since 1999 - also against the Yankees). In best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Yankees have a 31-11 series record, a 5-0 Semis-round series record, and a 27-15 Game 1 record, while the Boston Red Sox have a 5-7 series record (1-7 in their last eight best-of-7 series), a 1-3 Semis-round record, and a 6-6 Game 1 record. Series 903 is the second best-of-7 meeting between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox: The first was MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 795 (the 1999 American League Championship Series in the MLB Semifinals round), which New York won in five games.