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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2002 NHL Finals round - Series 862.
Carolina Hurricanes vs Detroit Red Wings

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 35-26-16-5=91pts, Detroit 51-17-10-4=116pts
Game 1 on Tuesday, 4 June: Car. wins at Det., 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 2 on Thursday, 6 June: Car. loses at Det., 3-goals-1
Game 3 on Saturday, 8 June: Det. wins at Car., 3-goals-2 (3OT)
Game 4 on Monday, 10 June: Det. wins at Car., 3-goals-nil
Game 5 on Thursday, 13 June: Car. loses at Det., 3-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

Notes after Game 5: Detroit defeats Carolina 3-goals-1 to win best-of-7 series 862 and the 2002 NHL Stanley Cup Finals 4-games-1. The best-of-7 Finals-round Game 5 record of Detroit is now 4-7 (3-2 at home), while that for the Carolina Hurricanes is now 0-1 (0-1 on the road). The best-of-7 series record for the Detroit Red Wings is now 42-33 overall and 8-11 in the NHL Finals; that for the Carolina Hurricanes is now 3-3 overall and 0-1 in the NHL Finals. The seven goals by Carolina in the Finals are the third-lowest ever in a best-of-7 NHL Finals lasting five games; only the 1939 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 1957 Boston Bruins scored fewer goals in such a series. The two total goals at home by Carolina in the Finals are the second-lowest ever in a best-of-7 NHL Finals lasting five games; only the 1939 Leafs scored fewer goals (one) at home in such a series.

Notes after Game 4: Detroit visits and shuts out Carolina 3-goals-nil to take a 3-games-1 series 862 lead. In best-of-7 Finals-round Game 4 action, Carolina is now 0-1 (0-1 at home) while Detroit is 8-11 (5-3 on the road). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, Carolina has an 0-1 series record; when leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, Detroit has a 13-2 record (the two losses were to Toronto in the 1942 Finals [as part of a 3-games-nil Toronto series comeback victory] and to St. Louis in the 1991 Preliminary round).

Notes after Game 3: Detroit visited and defeated Carolina 3-goals-2 in the third overtime, to take a 2-games-1 series lead. Detroit tied the game 2-goals-all 18:46 into the third regulation period, and won the game 14:47 into the third overtime. In best-of-7 NHL playoff history from 1939 through 2001: When the road team (Detroit) trailed by one goal 18:45 into the third period, its game record was 10-378 (.026); when either the home or the road team trailed by one goal 18:45 into the third, its game record was 25-691 (.035); when the road team trailed by one goal 18:45 into the third period of a Finals-round game, its game record was 2-52 (.037), with Vancouver (in New York) in Game 1 of the 1994 NHL Finals and Philadelphia (in Boston) in Game 2 of the 1974 Finals as the only two road teams to prevail in that situation. With Game 3 lasting 14:47 into the third overtime, it is noteworthy that, in best-of-7 play from 1939 through 2001, at that point in previous overtime games the record of the home team was a mere 1-9. Going deep into overtime rarely bodes well for the home squad.

Notes after Game 2: Detroit defeated Carolina 3-goals-1 to tie the 2002 NHL Finals at 1-game-all. The best-of-7 Finals-round Game 2 record for Detroit is now 10-9 (5-4 at home), while that for Carolina falls to 0-1 (0-1 on the road). When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Carolina sports a 2-1 series record, while Detroit owns a 16-13 series record. NHL teams tied 1-game-all (with those two games on the road -- eg. Carolina) are currently on a seven-series losing streak, when both only the Finals round and all rounds are taken into consideration. The Hurricanes continue to follow the precedent set by the 1980 Islanders, which also lost Game 2 of the 1980 Finals.

Notes after Game 1: Carolina defeats Detroit 3-goals-2 in overtime, to win a game they never led. Carolina is now 1-0 (1-0 on the road) in Game 1 of best-of-7-format NHL Finals; Detroit is now 9-10 (5-4 at home) in Game 1 of best-of-7-format NHL Finals. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, Carolina has a 2-0 series record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, Detroit has a 13-22 series record. In previous best-of-7 NHL Finals, the road team won Game 1 in overtime six times (Toronto, 1949; Montreal, 1968; Islanders, 1980; Edmonton, 1990; Vancouver, 1994; Buffalo, 1999) -- of these six road OT Game 1 winners, the first four won their series, while the last two lost their series. With the road overtime Game 1 win, the 2002 Hurricanes continue to track the 1980 Islanders, with the latter setting a favorable precedent for the former. Carolina tied the game 2-goals-all with 39:10 elapsed in regulation. In best-of-7 NHL playoff action from 1939 through 2001, road teams trailing by one goal with 39:09 elapsed had a 102-385 (.209) record.

Pre-series notes: Detroit finished the 2001-02 regular season with 25 more points than Carolina (116 to 91). From 1939 through the 2002 NHL Semifinals round, when NHL best-of-7 opponents were separated by 25 regular-season points, the team playing Game 1 at home (Detroit) has gone on to post a 4-2 (.667) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. In NHL history, the first best-of-7 playoff series between teams separated by 25 regular-season points was series 102: In it, the Detroit Red Wings -- 25 points superior to the Toronto Maple Leafs -- swept the Leafs in a 1955 NHL Semifinals round. Setting a favorable precedent for Carolina were the 1980 New York Islanders: In the 1979-80 regular season, they finished with 91 points compared to 116 points for the Philadelphia Flyers, and yet defeated the Flyers twenty-two years ago in the 1980 NHL Finals.