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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2002 NHL Preliminary round - Series 854.
Phoenix Coyotes vs San Jose Sharks

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: San Jose 44-27-8-3=99pts, Phoenix 40-27-9-6=95pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 17 April: Phoenix loses at San Jose, 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Saturday, 20 April: Phoenix wins at San Jose, 3-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 22 April: San Jose wins at Phoenix, 4-goals-1
Game 4 on Wednesday, 24 April: San Jose wins at Phoenix, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Friday, 26 April: Phoenix loses at San Jose, 4-goals-1

SERIES NOTES: Post Game 5 and series assessment: San Jose wins Game 5 by a 4-goals-1 margin, and wins the series by a 4-games-1 margin. The Sharks now sport a best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 5 record of 2-5 (2-0 at home), while that of Phoenix becomes 1-4 (1-3 on the road). San Jose now has a best-of-7 series record of 4-6 overall (4-3 in the Preliminary round), while said record for Phoenix is 0-5 in the Preliminary round and overall. The LWWWW win by San Jose is the second in NHL best-of-7 Prelim-round play, the 26th in NHL best-of-7 play overall, and the 56th overall. Post Game 4 assessment: The one favorable precedent that now exists on behalf of Phoenix's winning the series is best-of-7 series 479, a 1987 Prelim-round set-to between the New York Islanders and the Washington Capitals in which, like Phoenix, New York opened LWLL@VVHH. The Islanders rallied to win Games 5-7 and the series. In best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 4s, San Jose is now 6-1 (and an NHL-best 2-0 on the road), while Phoenix is now 3-2 (2-2 on home ice). Up 3-games-1 in a best-of-7 series, San Jose has a 1-0 series record; down 3-games-1 in a best-of-7 series, Phoenix has an 0-1 series record: Both the San Jose win and the Phoenix loss occurred during the 2000 NHL Preliminary round (though not against each other). Note from the data presented above that comebacks from 3-games-1 deficits are most common during the NHL Preliminary round of playoffs. Post Game 3 assessment: San Jose improves its best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 3 mark to 4-3 (2-0 on the road) with its 4-goals-1 victory over Phoenix, whose similar record falls to 3-2 (2-2 in Phoenix). Leading a best-of-7 series 2-games-1, San Jose has a 2-1 series record; trailing a best-of-7 2-games-1, Phoenix has a 0-1 series record (hardly statistically significant results). Post Game 2 assessment: With its Game 2 victory in San Jose, Phoenix improves its best-of-7 Preliminary round Game 2 record to 3-2 (2-2 on the road), while that record for San Jose falls to 3-4 (0-2 on home ice). San Jose is now tied with Buffalo and Ottawa for the worst best-of-7 Preliminary round Game 2 record at home (0-2). Previous, Phoenix began their 1998 and 1999 Preliminary round best-of-7 series with a loss and a win, and won Game 3 of both series ... but lost both series. Their predecessor franchise, the Winnipeg Jets, never began a best-of-7 playoff series LW. San Jose began its best-of-7 Preliminary round series in 1994 WL, and won the series, and then began its 1994 Qtrs series WL, and lost that series. Post Game 1 assessment: With its Game 1 loss to San Jose, the Phoenix Coyotes (and their predecessor franchise, the Winnipeg Jets) are a combined 3-10 in first games of best-of-7 playoff series. From 1939-2001, NHL teams winning Game 1 of a best-of-7 series by a one-goal margin have posted a 111-60 (.649) series record. Pre-series assessment: In the 2001-02 regular season, San Jose finished with 4 more points than Phoenix. From 1939 through 2001, when NHL best-of-7 opponents were separated by 4 regular-season points, the better regular-season team has gone on to post a 4-7 (.364) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent.