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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2002 NBA Semifinals round - Series 868.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: Sacramento 61-21, L.A. Lakers 58-24
Game 1 on Saturday, 18 May: L.A. wins at Sac., 106-pts-99
Game 2 on Monday, 20 May: L.A. loses at Sac., 96-pts-90
Game 3 on Friday, 24 May: Sac. wins at L.A., 103-pts-90
Game 4 on Sunday, 26 May: Sac. loses at L.A., 100-pts-99
Game 5 on Tuesday, 28 May: L.A. loses at Sac., 92-pts-91
Game 6 on Friday, 31 May: Sac. loses at L.A., 106-pts-102
Game 7 on Sunday, 02 June: L.A. wins at Sac., 112-pts-106 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

Post Game 7 and Series Notes: The Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Sacramento Kings in Sacramento, 112-pts-106 in overtime, to win best-of-7 series 868, 4-games-3. The win was the first road Game 7 overtime win in NBA history in five tries (the previous four attempts were by the St. Louis Hawks in the 1957 Finals [best-of-7 series 115], the L.A. Lakers in the 1962 Finals [series 150], the San Antonio Spurs in the 1990 Quarterfinals [series 568], and the Houston Rockets in the 1993 Quarterfinals [series 644]). The best-of-7 Semis-round Game 7 record for the Sacramento Kings falls to 0-1 (0-1 at home). The best-of-7 Semis-round Game 7 record for the L.A. Lakers improves to 5-1 (1-1 on the road). With the win, the L.A. Lakers improve their best-of-7 series record to 50-23 overall and 21-5 in the NBA Semifinals (Conference Finals) round; with the loss, the Sacramento Kings see their best-of-7 series record fall to 1-2 overall and 0-1 in the NBA Semifinals. From 1947 through 2001, the home team in NBA Game 7 action held a 67-14 (.827) Game 7 record overall, and a 23-6 (.793) Game 7 record in the Semifinals (Conference Finals; including the 1948 loss in St. Louis by the now-defunct Bombers). The last NBA road team to win a Game 7 had been the New York Knicks, winning Game 7 of their 2000 Quarterfinals series in Miami. The last NBA road team to win a Semis-round Game 7 had been the Philadelphia 76ers, which won Game 7 of their 1982 series in Boston. In NBA Game 7 play, the home team had been on a four-game winning streak, and was 29-3 (.906) in the 32 Game 7s since the 76ers' aforementioned road victory in 1982. Los Angeles trailed by two points at halftime: In the previous 1646 best-of-7 format NBA playoff games, when the road team trailed by two points at halftime, its game record was 19-52 (.268) and 0-4 in seventh games.

Post Game 6 Notes: Los Angeles defeats Sacramento 106-pts-102 to tie best-of-7 series 868 at 3-games-all. The best-of-7 Semis-round Game 6 record for the L.A. Lakers is now 7-5 (2-1 at home), while that for the Sacramento Kings is 0-1 (0-1 on the road). The L.A. Lakers Game 7 record is 10-6 with a 4-game winning streak in Game 7 play; the Sacramento Kings Game 7 record is 0-0.

Post Game 5 Notes: Sacramento hosts and defeats the Lakers, 92-pts-91, to take a 3-games-2 series lead. The best-of-7 Semis-round Game 5 record for Sacramento is now 1-0 (1-0 at home), while that for the Lakers is now 9-9 (1-3 on the road). Sacramento is leading a best-of-7-format NBA playoff series 3-games-2 for the first time. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Los Angeles Lakers have a 2-6 series record. Only once before in a best-of-7 NBA Semis-round playoff series has a team opened with an LWWLW @ HHVVH record: In best-of-7 series 259, the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers did so, and won Game 6 to eliminate the Milwaukee Bucks. As such, the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers set a favorable precedent for the Sacramento Kings against, ironically, the 2002 Los Angeles Lakers.

Post Game 4 Notes: Los Angeles defeated Sacramento 100-pts-99 to tie series 868 at 2-games-all. The best-of-7 Semis-round Game 4 record of Sacramento is now 0-1 (0-1 on the road), while that of the Los Angeles Lakers is now 15-11 (4-3 at home). When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Sacramento has an 0-0 series record, while the L.A. Lakers have a 13-6 series record and a five-series winning streak. The only team to begin an NBA best-of-7 playoff series with a WLLW @ VVHH record and win the series was the Detroit Pistons, in best-of-7 series 592 (a 1991 Qtrs-round series vs. the Boston Celtics); as such, those 1991 Pistons set a favorable precedent for the 2002 Lakers in the latter's battle with the 2002 Kings. A controversial 3-point shot at the end of the first half lowered the Lakers' halftime deficit from 17 points to 14 points: In the 1640 best-of-7-format NBA playoff games from 1947 through 25 May 2002, teams trailing by 14 points at the half had a 5-36 (.122) game record, while teams trailing by 17 points at the half had a 1-27 (.036) game record -- as such, that controversial shot improved the Lakers' historical victory probability at halftime from 3.6% to 12.2% (small values both, but an improvement by a factor of 3.4). Sacramento led the Lakers 40-pts-20 after 1Q: In surmounting that 20-point deficit after 1Q, the 2002 Lakers tied the 1989 Lakers for the biggest end-1Q point-deficit ever overcome for a game victory. On 14 May 1989 (13 years 12 days prior), the Lakers trailed the Supersonics in Seattle 32-pts-12 after 1Q of best-of-7 series 544 Game 4 (a 1989 Qtrs-round series game), but rallied to win the game 97-pts-95 to complete a series sweep. The 20-point lead for Sacramento after 1Q is tied for the fourth-largest end-1Q lead in NBA best-of-7-format playoff games. The largest such lead ever was 26 points, by the Milwaukee Bucks over the Philadelphia 76ers in series 224 Game 3 (a 1970 Qtrs-round series): In eventually converting that 40-pts-14 end-1Q lead into a 156-pts-120 win, Milwaukee scored the most points ever (156) in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game. Before series 868 Game 4, teams trailing by 20 or more points after 1Q had a 1-7 game record, while teams trailing by exactly 20 points after 1Q had a 1-4 game record.

Post Game 3 Notes: Sacramento defeated the Lakers in Los Angeles 103-pts-90 to take a 2-games-1 lead in best-of-7 series 868. Sacramento now owns a best-of-7 Semis-round Game 3 record of 1-0 (1-0 on the road); that for the Los Angeles Lakers is now 16-10 (5-2 at home). When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Sacramento Kings have a 1-0 series record; when trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Los Angeles Lakers have a 3-14 series record (the three series victories occurred in best-of-7 series 211 [1969 Qtrs-round over the San Francisco Warriors], 227 [1970 Qtrs-round over the Phoenix Suns], and 518 [1988 Qtrs-round over the Utah Jazz]). NBA teams which begin a best-of-7 playoff series with an LWW @ HHV record (such as L.A.) have a 1-12 series record: The sole winner -- and thus a precedent-setter for a Lakers series win -- was the 1991 Detroit Pistons, which in series 592 won its Qtrs-round series over the Boston Celtics. From 1947 through the 2002 Quarterfinals, NBA teams tied 1-game-all after two best-of-7 games and won Game 3 on the road by 13+ points had a 16-2 series record. Sacramento led Game 3 by 17 points after one quarter: That 17-point lead after one quarter is tied for seventh-largest among such leads by road teams in the 1639 best-of-7 NBA playoff games played to date. Sacramento led Game 3 by 23 points after three quarters: In best-of-7 NBA history, teams leading by 19+ points after three quarters now have a 172-0 record.

Post Game 2 Notes: Sacramento hosts and defeats Los Angeles 96-pts-90 to tie series 868 at 1-game-all. The loss lowers Los Angeles' best-of-7 Semis-round Game 2 record to 16-10 (2-5 on the road). The win improves Sacramento's best-of-7 Semis-round Game 2 record to 1-0 (at home). When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 playoff series, Sacramento's series record is 1-0, while Los Angeles' series record is 17-10. Series 868 is the first NBA best-of-7 playoff series in which a team won Game One by 7 points but lost Game Two by six points.

Post Game 1 Notes: Los Angeles visits and defeats Sacramento 106-pts-99 to take a 1-game-nil series lead. Sacramento's best-of-7 Semis-round Game 1 record falls to 0-1 (0-1 at home); that for L.A. improves to 21-5 (5-2 on the road). When trailing a best-of-7 series 1-game-nil, Sacramento has an 0-1 series record; when leading a best-of-7 series 1-game-nil, L.A. has a 41-7 series record. Teams winning Game 1 of a best-of-7 NBA playoff series by seven points own a perfect 9-0 series record; two of those nine were L.A. Lakers teams, in the NBA Finals of 1980 and 1982.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2001-02 regular season, Sacramento finished three games ahead of Los Angeles. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through the 2002 Quarterfinals (285 series total), when a team finishes the regular season three games ahead of its best-of-7 playoff series opponent, its series record against such opponents is 7-9.