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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2002 MLB Semifinals round - Series 871.
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: St. Louis 97-65, San Francisco 95-66
Game 1 on Wednesday, 9 October: San Fran. wins at St. Louis, 9-runs-6
Game 2 on Thursday, 10 October: San Fran. wins at St. Louis, 4-runs-1
Game 3 on Saturday, 12 October: St. Louis wins at San Fran., 5-runs-4
Game 4 on Sunday, 13 October: St. Louis loses at San Fran., 4-runs-3
Game 5 on Monday, 14 October: St. Louis loses at San Fran., 2-runs-1

SERIES NOTES: Game 5 notes: The San Francisco Giants hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 2-runs-1 to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 871. San Francisco thus improves its best-of-7 Semis-round Game 5 record to 3-0, which ties that of the NHL Calgary Flames and MLB Pittsburgh Pirates, and is just below the category-leading NHL Buffalo Sabres and NBA Portland Trailblazers (4-0 each). San Francisco also improves its best-of-7 Semis-round home Game 5 record to 3-0, which ties the category-leading NHL Calgary Flames, NBA Chicago Bulls, and NBA Portland Trailblazers. The St. Louis Cardinals see their best-of-7 Semis-round Game 5 record fall to 1-4, and their best-of-7 road Game 5 record fall to 0-3; the latter ties that of the NBA Seattle Supersonics, just above the category-worst 0-5 record owned by the NBA Milwaukee Bucks. The San Francisco Giants now own best-of-7 series records of 2-3 (overall) and 2-1 (Semis-round), while the St. Louis Cardinals now own best-of-7 series records of 11-9 (overall) and 2-3 (Semis-round). The victory order for this system was WWLWW, so series 871 is the sixth best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series to go this route, the 12th best-of-7 MLB series (all rounds) to go this route, and the 71st best-of-7 MLB, NBA, or NHL series (all rounds) to go this route. San Francisco trailed St. Louis by one run going into the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 5: In the 721 best-of-7 format MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2001, when the home team trailed by one run after 7 1/2 innings, its game record was 29-63 (.315). Also: Of these 721 games, four of them featured the road team breaking a scoreless tie with one run in the top of the seventh inning -- in each of those four games, the road team won 1-run-nil. Of the 731 best-of-seven format MLB playoff games from 1905 through the 2002 MLB Semifinals, the road team has led from the top of the first inning through the end of the game in 56 of those games; the 2002 St. Louis Cardinals in series 871 Games 1-2 become only the second MLB team to have trailed during every single home field plate appearance in a best-of-7 playoff series (the first: the 1989 San Francisco Giants in Games 3-4 of series 550 -- the 1989 World Series).

Game 4 notes: The San Francisco Giants hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-runs-3 to take a commanding 3-games-1 lead in their best-of-7 series. The Giants improve their best-of-7 Game 4 records to 4-1 (all sites and rounds), 3-0 (all sites, MLB Semifinals-round), and 3-0 (home, MLB Semifinals-round). The Cardinals see their best-of-7 Game 4 records fall to 11-9 (all sites and rounds), 2-3 (all sites, MLB Semifinals-round), and 0-3 (road, MLB Semifinals-round: this mark is now tied with those from the MLB Boston Red Sox and NBA Portland Trailblazers as a best-of-7 road Game 4 MLB/NBA/NHL-worst). Setting a precedent for a St. Louis series victory under these highly adverse circumstances were, most ironically, the Kansas City Royals in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 458 -- the 1985 World Series vs. . . . the St. Louis Cardinals. In that series, Kansas City lost the first two games at home, won Game 3 on the road, and lost Game 4 on the road, thus finding themselves in a situation identical to that now faced by St. Louis. Kansas City went on to win Game 5 in St. Louis, and Games 6-7 in Kansas City to win the series. A San Francisco victory on Monday would set up the first all-California World Series since 1989 . . . the previous year that San Francisco enjoyed a World Series berth.

Game 3 notes: The St. Louis Cardinals visited and defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-runs-4, thereby trimming the Giants' series 871 lead to 2-games-1. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 871 thus becomes the fourteenth best-of-7 MLB series in which the visiting club has won the first three games. The record of the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of best-of-7 MLB Semis-round playoff series improves to an MLB/NBA/NHL-best 5-0, ahead of the second-place 2-0 record shared by the NHL Vancouver Canucks and the old NBA Baltimore Bullets (second incarnation). The record of the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of best-of-7 MLB Semis-round playoff series (road games only) also improves to an MLB/NBA/NHL-best 3-0, ahead of the second-place 2-0 record held by the MLB Seattle Mariners. MLB/NBA/NHL teams in best-of-7 Semifinals series that go WWL @ VVH in their first three games (such as the San Francisco Giants) hold a series record of 9-1, including an eight-series winning streak -- the only loss was in series 53 (1945), in which the NHL Boston Bruins went WWL @ VVH before losing in seven games to the Detroit Red Wings. In best-of-7 Semifinals playoff series, the San Francisco Giants have a Game 4 record of 2-0 (behind only the 5-0 MLB New York Yankees), while the St. Louis Cardinals have a Game 4 record of 2-2.

Game 2 notes: San Francisco visits and defeats St. Louis 4-runs-1 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 format series 871 -- the 2002 National League Championship Series. With the loss, the St. Louis Cardinals now have a best-of-7 MLB Semis Game 2 all-time home record of 0-3, an MLB/NBA/NHL worst (just below the MLB Seattle Mariners, which are 0-2 in this situation). The San Francisco Giants are now 5-8 on the road in best-of-7 MLB playoff games (all rounds), and are 4-4 on the road in best-of-7 MLB Semis-round games. By contrast, the St. Louis Cardinals are now 32-29 at home in best-of-7 MLB playoff games (all rounds), and are 8-6 at home in best-of-7 MLB Semis-round games. In previous best-of-7 MLB Semifinals, teams leading 2-games-nil have posted a 12-2 series record . . . and are currently riding a twelve-series winning streak. The last team to surmount a best-of-7 MLB Semis-round 2-games-nil deficit and win the series? That would be the St. Louis Cardinals, in the 1985 National League Championship Series vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. Starting with series 721 Game 5 (the 1996 National League Championship Series), continuing through series 821 Games 1-2 (the 2000 N.L.C.S.), and concluding with series 871 Games 1-2 (the 2002 N.L.C.S.), the St. Louis Cardinals in their five last best-of-7 MLB Semis-round home games 1) have not led once in those 45 innings of those five games, 2) trailed going into the bottom half of 43 of those 45 innings (and were tied in the remaining two), and 3) have not come to bat once -- once -- with a lead or with the game tied during the first two games of series 871. Best-of-7 series 871 is the 127th best-of-7 format MLB playoff series, and although the road team has won Games 1 and 2 in twenty of the previous 126 series, never before has the road team led the game after each and every half-inning of Games 1 and 2 (as the San Francisco Giants have in series 871 vs. the St. Louis Cardinals).

Game 1 notes: San Francisco visits and defeats St. Louis 9-runs-6, thereby taking a 1-game-nil series lead. The fifteen combined runs in Game 1 tie for third place among most combined runs in MLB best-of-7 format Game 1 play (with MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 772 Game 1 -- of the 1998 World Series -- in which the New York Yankees hosted and also defeated the San Diego Padres 9-runs-6; the best-of-7 Game 1 record is 18 combined runs, set in series 25 Game 1 -- of the 1932 World Series -- in which the New York Yankees hosted and defeated the Chicago Cubs 12-runs-6). The fifteen combined runs in Game 1 set a new record for most combined runs in MLB Semis-round best-of-7 format Game 1 play, breaking the old mark of 14 set in series 549 Game 1 -- of the 1989 National League Championship Series -- in which the San Francisco Giants visited and defeated the Chicago Cubs 11-runs-3. San Francisco led St. Louis by five runs after 1.5 innings: From 1905 through 2001, when the road team led by five runs after 1.5 innings, its best-of-7 MLB playoff game record was 3-1 -- the sole loss occurred in best-of-7 series 523 Game 3 (of the 1988 American League Championship Series), in which the Boston Red Sox led 5-runs-nil after 1.5 innings in Oakland but lost to the host Athletics 10-runs-6 (ironically, the manager of the St. Louis Cardinals for series 871 Game 1 also managed the Athletics in that 1988 game). From 1905 through 2001, MLB teams winning Game 1 by three runs (i.e., the San Francisco Giants) had a 14-7 overall series record and a 1-2 Semis-round series record -- the first MLB team to win Game 1 of a best-of-7 playoff series by three runs was the 1905 New York Giants in the World Series (the first best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series); this predecessor to the current San Francisco Giants franchise went on to win the 1905 World Series. The San Francisco Giants have a 1-0 series record when leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil. The St. Louis Cardinals have a 7-6 series record (and a three-series losing streak) when trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002 regular season, St. Louis finished 1.5 games ahead of San Francisco. From 1939 through the 2002 NHL and NBA playoffs, when MLB best-of-7 opponents differed by 1.5 regular-season games, the superior regular-season team (e.g., St. Louis) posted a 3-1 Game 1 record and a 2-2 series record. In best-of-7 MLB playoff action, the St. Louis Cardinals own a 6-13 Game 1 record and an 11-8 series record, while the San Francisco Giants sport a 1-3 Game 1 record and a 1-3 series record.