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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2001 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 831.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils

Schedule and 2001 Results
Regular Season Records: New Jersey 48-19-12-3=111pts, Toronto 37-29-11-5=90pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 26 April: Toronto wins at New Jersey, 2-goals-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 28 April: Toronto loses at New Jersey in OT, 6-goals-5
Game 3 on Tuesday, 01 May: New Jersey wins at Toronto in OT, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Thursday, 03 May: New Jersey loses at Toronto, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 05 May: Toronto wins at New Jersey, 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Monday, 07 May: New Jersey wins at Toronto, 4-goals-2
Game 7 on Wednesday, 09 May: Toronto loses at New Jersey, 5-goals-1

OVERALL SUBSTANCE: New Jersey defeats Toronto LWWLLWW.
The LWWLLWW win of series 831 by New Jersey over Toronto is the 2nd in NHL Qtrs-round best-of-7 series, the 8th in NHL best-of-7 series (all rounds), and the 13th in NHL, NBA, or MLB best-of-7 series.

SERIES NOTES: Game 7: New Jersey hosts and defeats Toronto 5-goals-1 to win series 831; New Jersey thus improves its best-of-7 Qtrs-round record to 5-1 (2-1 when Game 1 is at home), while Toronto sees its best-of-7 Qtrs-round record fall to 4-12 (1-11 when Game 1 is on the road; those eleven best-of-7 Qtrs-round series losses with Game 1 on the road is an NHL/NBA high); the Devils' LWWLLWW best-of-7 Qtrs-round series win is only the second in the NHL Qtrs, with the first having occurred in series 232 (the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Boston Bruins in their 1971 NHL Qtrs series LWWLLWW); Toronto led Game 7 1-goal-nil until 21:32 into regulation, when the Devils tied the game 1-goal-all -- in the 2369 best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2000, teams leading by one goal after 21:31 had a 690-285 (.708) won-lost record (thus indicating a minor game upset by New Jersey) . . . Game 6: New Jersey visits and defeats Toronto 4-goals-2 to achieve a 3-games-all tie in series 831; entering Game 6, New Jersey faced a LWWLL @ HHVVH scenario which dealt a 3-10 series record to those which previously faced it (but with all ten series losers losing the series in Game 6) -- now that Jersey has won Game 6, it faces a LWWLLW @ HHVVHV scenario which resulted in a 3-0 series record for all teams previously facing it; Toronto, conversely, faces a WLLWWL @ VVHHVH scenario, which of course yields an 0-3 series record -- neglect the game sites, though, and one gets in NHL/NBA Qtrs series a 7-1 series record (and a 7-0 streak) for teams going WLLWWL (all HHVVHV, though, but with the last team to do so the Toronto Maple Leafs, exactly eight years ago in the 1993 NHL Qtrs); statistically, Game 7 in series 831 is the dead heat that one would expect it to be . . . Game 5: Toronto defeats the Devils in New Jersey 3-goals-2 to take a 3-games-2 lead in series 831; in best-of-7 series history, when a team goes WLLWW @ VVHHV as Toronto has, its series record is 10-3 -- the three teams losing in this situation were the New Jersey Devils (in series 578, a 1991 Prelim round series vs. Pittsburgh), the New Jersey Devils (in series 663, a 1994 Semis round series vs. the New York Rangers), and the Colorado Avalanche (in series 786, a 1999 Semis round series vs. Dallas) -- two points of irony are that 1) role models for the 2001 Devils are teams that ousted the 1991 and 1994 Devils, and 2) all three teams in the situation now facing the 2001 Devils who rebounded to win their series (Pittsburgh in 1991, New York in 1994, Dallas in 1999) ALSO won the Stanley Cup . . . Game 4: Toronto defeats New Jersey 3-goals-1 to tie series 831 at 2-games-all; this series is the 89th best-of-7 NHL, NBA, or MLB series to open with one team losing Game 1, winning Games 2-3, and losing Game 4 (the first to do so was the 1926 MLB Finals [World Series] pitting St. Louis vs. the New York Yankees; the most recent was the 2001 NHL Prelim round pitting Pittsburgh vs. Washington) -- last year's NHL Qtrs match-up between Toronto and New Jersey also began with Toronto winning Games 1 and 4 (the only difference was that Toronto enjoyed home-ice advantage in 2000); New Jersey sees its best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 4 record fall to 2-4 (1-2 on the road), while Toronto improves its best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 4 record to 7-9 (4-8 at home; those 8 losses are an NHL/NBA franchise high in this category) . . . Game 3: New Jersey defeats the Leafs in Toronto in overtime, 3-goals-2, thus taking a 2-games-1 lead in series 831; the Jersey best-of-7 Qtrs Game 3 record improves to 5-1 (2-1 on road) -- that 5-1 (.833) record now ties the 10-2 Edmonton Oilers for the highest best-of-7 Qtrs Game 3 NHL/NBA franchise winning percentage among franchises with at least one best-of-7 Qtrs Game 3 defeat; the Leaf best-of-7 Qtrs Game 3 record falls to 4-12 (4-8 at home) -- those 12 losses and 8 home losses tie NHL/NBA best-of-7 Qtrs Game 3 highs set by the New York NBA Knickerbockers and New York NHL Rangers in the overall case, and by the NHL Rangers alone in the home-only case . . . Game 2: New Jersey defeats Toronto 6-goals-5 in overtime to tie series 831 at 1-game-all; Jersey improves its best-of-7 Qtrs Game 2 record to 3-2, while that of Toronto falls to 7-9; in best-of-7 NHL series in which the home team loses Game 1 but wins Game 2 in overtime, the series record of that team is 10-7; with 45:58 elapsed in Game 2, the Devils held a three-goal lead over Toronto -- in the 2369 best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2000, when the home team led by three goals with that much time elapsed, its series record was 210-1 (it's now 211-1, but going into overtime, it easily could have become 210-2 given how Toronto had tied the game) . . . Game 1: Toronto defeats the Devils in New Jersey 2-goals-nil; in best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through Prelim round 2001, when the road team wins by a shutout in Game 1, its series record is 14-12 (.538); history buffs will savor the fact that Toronto Maple Leaf teams own the first four road Game 1 shutouts in best-of-7 series (1945 Semis; 1945 Finals; 1949 Semis; 1950 Semis) as well as the last two (this one, and the 2001 Prelim round vs. Ottawa); New Jersey's home Game 1 Qtrs-round record falls to 1-2, while Toronto's 'mproves to 3-9 . . . Pre-series: Best-of-7 series 831 is a rematch of best-of-7 series 807, which featured Toronto vs. New Jersey in the 2000 NHL Qtrs round -- the Devils won 4-games-2 with Toronto scoring Game 1 and Game 4 victories; this series is the seventh rematch from the 2000 NHL best-of-7 playoffs; when Toronto opens a best-of-7 Qtrs-round playoff series on the road, its series record is 1-10 -- the ten losses are an NHL/NBA high; New Jersey has a game record of 17-12 in best-of-7 Qtrs play, while Toronto has a 32-55 record; in best-of-7 NHL Qtrs-round play, Toronto's road Game 1 record is 2-9 -- the nine losses are tied with the New York Knickerbockers, New York Rangers, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks for an NHL/NBA franchise high; New Jersey finished 21 points ahead of Toronto in the regular season -- from 1939-2000, the team finishing 21 regular season points ahead of its best-of-7 playoff opponent had a 5-3 series record (all rounds) and a 2-0 series record (Qtrs only).