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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2001 MLB Semifinals round - Series 845.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners

Schedule and 2001 Results
Regular Season Records: Seattle 116-46, New York 95-65
Game 1 on Wednesday, 17 October: New York wins at Seattle, 4-runs-2
Game 2 on Thursday, 18 October: New York wins at Seattle, 3-runs-2
Game 3 on Saturday, 20 October: Seattle wins at New York, 14-runs-3
Game 4 on Sunday, 21 October: Seattle loses at New York, 3-runs-1
Game 5 on Monday, 22 October: Seattle loses at New York, 12-runs-3

OVERALL SUBSTANCE: New York wins: WWLWW
The New York Yankees win best-of-7 series 845, WWLWW. They become the 68th MLB/NBA/NHL franchise to win a best-of-7 series WWLWW, the 11th MLB franchise to do so, and the fifth MLB franchise to do so in the best-of-7 Semis-round.

SERIES NOTES: Game 5 aftermath: New York defeats Seattle 12-runs-3 to win series 845, 4-games-1. The series victory by New York is the second biggest upset in best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL series history, since New York finished 20 regular-season games behind Seattle (in the 1906 World Series, the Chicago White Sox defeated the Chicago Cubs despite finishing 22 1/2 regular-season games behind the Cubs). The 12-run outburst by New York is the largest in an MLB Semis-round Game 5 since the Atlanta Braves tallied 14 runs in 1996 vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. The combined 15 runs by New York and Seattle set a new best-of-7 MLB Semis-round Game 5 record, surpassing the previous high of 14 runs set by the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers in 1987 and tied by the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals in 1996. Seattle's best-of-7 MLB Semis-round series record thus falls to 0-3, which ties the Pittsburgh Pirates for the worst MLB, NBA, or NHL Semis-round best-of-7 franchise record; New York's best-of-7 MLB Semis-round series record improves to 5-0, which is the best MLB, NBA, or NHL Semis-round best-of-7 franchise record. Of the ten 2001 MLB Semis-round playoff games, only three saw the losing team hold a lead in a game. Game 4 aftermath: New York defeats Seattle 3-runs-1 to take a 3-games-1 series lead. The victory improves New York's best-of-7 Semis-round Game 5 record to 5-0, the best such mark among MLB, NBA, or NHL franchises. Setting an LLWL @ HHVV comeback precedent for the 2001 Seattle Mariners are the Kansas City MLB Royals, which began the 1985 World Series in this manner before winning three straight games and that series. The game was scoreless through seven full innings: The last best-of-7 MLB playoff game (any round) to be scoreless after seven full was the climactic Game 6 of best-of-7 series 745 (the 1997 American League Championship Series), in which the Cleveland MLB Indians scored once in the top of the eleventh inning to win the game (and the series) in Baltimore, 1-run-nil. The Yankees trailed by one run after 7 1/2 innings: In the 704 best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2000, when the home team trailed by one run after 7 1/2 innings, its win-loss record was 27-61 (.307). Game 5 of the series will be played Monday in New York. Game 3 aftermath: Seattle defeats New York 14-runs-3 to win Game 3 and reduce the New York series lead to 2-games-1. The 14 runs allowed by New York is the most ever allowed by the Yankees in a best-of-7 playoff game, breaking the record of 13 set by the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 2 of the 1956 World Series, and since tied by the Milwaukee Braves in Game 2 of the 1958 World Series, and by the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the 1999 American League Championship Series. The 14 Seattle runs were the most ever in a best-of-7 MLB Semis-round Game 3, breaking the record of 13 set by the Boston Red Sox (also vs. the Yankees) in 1999. The 17 runs by both teams were also the most ever in a best-of-7 MLB Semis-round Game 3, breaking the record of 16 set by the Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox in 1988. The 14 Seattle runs tie a best-of-7 MLB Game 3 record (all rounds), set by the Florida Marlins in the 1997 World Series. The 7-run 6th inning by Seattle ties the 7-run 6th innings by the New York Yankees (in both the 1937 World Series Game 1 and the 1960 World Series Game 2) for the most 6th-inning runs in any best-of-7 series playoff game. The win for Seattle marked the first time in series 845 that the winning team trailed in the game, and thus constituted a minor upset by the Mariners: In 704 best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2000, when the road team trailed by two runs after four complete innings (as Seattle did in Game 3), its game record was only 17-53 (.243). Game 2 aftermath: New York defeats Seattle 3-runs-2 to win Game 2 and take a 2-games-nil series lead. Thus far, New York has never trailed in any of the series games. In 844 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB playoff series prior to Fall 2001, five times have teams finished 20+ regular-season games behind a best-of-7 series opponent but defeated that opponent in Game 1 -- in all five of those series, the superior regular-season opponent rebounded to win Game 2; in four of those five series, the superior regular-season opponent won the series. Thus, the Yankees have become the first team ever to take the first two games in a best-of-7 series after finishing 20+ games behind that team during the regular season. In best-of-7 Semis-round series, only once (in 21 opportunities) has a team lost its first two games at home and won the series: In series 53 (the 1945 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals), the Detroit Red Wings did so against the Boston Bruins. The last MLB team to lose Games 1-2 at home and win a best-of-7 series in any playoff round: The New York Yankees (ironically enough), in series 722 (the 1996 World Series) vs. the Atlanta Braves. With best-of-7 Game 2 records (all rounds) that now stand at 0-3 each, Seattle and the Kansas City Royals now share the worst Game 2 franchise record of any MLB, NHL, or NBA team in best-of-7 playoff series (all rounds). With the two victories and no losses thus far in series 845, New York's all-time best-of-7 games record is now 140-81 (.633) -- the best among MLB franchises, and the second-best overall (the Colorado NHL Avalanche, 1996-2001, are 67-38 (.638)). Game 1 aftermath: New York defeats Seattle 4-runs-2 to win Game 1 of the 2001 American League Championship Series. The Yankees improved their best-of-7 Game 1 record (all rounds) to 27-14, and their best-of-7 Game 1 MLB Semis-round record to 4-1; Seattle suffers its first best-of-7 Game 1 loss and now has a 2-1 Game 1 franchise record. The New York Game 1 victory over Seattle is the sixth time that an NHL, NBA, or MLB team trailed its best-of-7 opponent by 20+ regular-season games (40+ regular-season points, in NHL parlance) but won Game 1 of the series. On all of the previous five occasions, the team that won Game 1 had lost Game 2; on four of the five previous occasions, the team that won Game 1 had lost the series. Those other five teams were the Chicago MLB White Sox in the 1906 MLB Finals (won series), the New York NBA Knickerbockers in the 1972 NBA Finals, the Toronto NHL Maple Leafs in the 1988 NHL Prelim round, the Vancouver NHL Canucks in the 1989 NHL Prelim round, and the Seattle Mariners in the 1995 MLB Semis. Pre-series: Seattle finished the 2001 MLB regular season twenty games ahead of New York. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series history, three times has a team finished twenty or more regular-season games ahead of its playoff opponent: In the 1998 MLB Semis (New York Yankees, 25 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians); in the 1906 MLB Finals (Chicago Cubs, 22 1/2 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox); in the 1995 MLB Semis (Cleveland Indians, 21 1/2 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners) -- New York and Cleveland won their series in 1998 and 1995, respectively, but the 1906 White Sox upset their crosstown rival Cubs. Ironically, both the 1906 Cubs and the 2001 Seattle Mariners won 116 games in their respective regular seasons. Best-of-7 series 845 is the eleventh MLB best-of-7 playoff rematch, given that the Yankees defeated Seattle in best-of-7 series 820 (the 2000 American League Championship Series). The Yankees were involved in seven of the previous ten such rematches, with a series record of 3-0 in the rematch year after winning in the first year (the World Series of 1936-37, 1952-53, and 1977-78).